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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Forex Articles
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USD Steady as Equities Retreat-Buy the Canadian?
By Ralph Shell | 3:03 PM Nov 21 2011 | 2420 Views | 0 Comments | 
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Early Monday equity markets were already retreating prior to the US opening, when the Washington whispers about a failed conclusion of the debt reduction super committee was confirmed. Achieving a $1.2T reduction over 10 years from a bloated budget does not seem like a big challenge, but it wa...
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Has the Euro Already Priced the Pending Greek Expulsion?
By Ralph Shell | 1:09 PM Sep 12 2011 | 1820 Views | 0 Comments |
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The tough love fix for the Greek economy, as recommended by the IMF, and administered by the ECB has, as many had warned, harmed their economy. Slower growth, reduced tax receipts, and failure to reduce the cost of the bloated public sector, have all contributed to current debt spiral. G...
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Tomorrows US Employment Report -A Clue to the Economies Direction?
By Ralph Shell | 12:34 PM Oct 06 2011 | 2066 Views | 0 Comments |
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The US Non-Farm Payroll Report is usually good for some volatility in the equity as well as the currency markets. It will be a surprise if tomorrow's report does not give us some price movement, but knowing which way is always the challenge.
The market anticipates the unemployment rate is g...
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Speculative Trade in the British Pound Continues to Grow
By Ralph Shell | 12:45 PM Oct 07 2011 | 2159 Views | 0 Comments |
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As we observed earlier this week in a article, "What is Going on with the Pound?" the open interest in the futures market is very large. It continues to grow. Rounded to the nearest thousand, the futures only OI (with no option consideration,) was up to 191K, an increase of 14.7K in one day.&n...
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Japanese Yen Remains a Favorite Haven
By Ralph Shell | 2:00 PM Aug 17 2011 | 2112 Views | 0 Comments |
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Despite the recent efforts by the BOJ to weaken the value of the yen, that currency continues to find buyers. Considering the ratio of Japanese sovereign debt to GDP is among the highest in the world, and with the Japanese adding to that deficit each year, this is an unusual choice. And,...
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Panic Abates and Markets Rally-Can the Euro Also Participate?
By Ralph Shell | 12:45 PM Sep 27 2011 | 1960 Views | 1 Comments |
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European bankers and finance ministers, prodded by comments from the international finance luminaries at last weekend's Washington gathering, took the message home, it was time to take action to address the euro banking crisis. Specific details of these new solutions remains elusive, but marke...
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Aussie Dollar Rolling Over from Highs-Is there More to Go?
By Ralph Shell | 11:11 AM Mar 14 2012 | 3333 Views | 3 Comments |
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Early today, the Australian Dollar sold off taking the market down to 1.0423, the lowest trade since January 24th 2012. The market has staged a minor recovery, working its way back to the 1.0510 area.
For almost five weeks the A$ traded around the 1.08 handle, but was unable to mount...
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Will Weekend European News Bring Hope for a Better Week
By Ralph Shell | 11:41 AM May 11 2012 | 3160 Views | 0 Comments |
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At long last the EURUSD took out the support at the 1.30 area, and worked down to a low of 1.2905. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2933 with hours until forex markets close for the weekend in New York. The bullish euro traders have been wounded by the market but it has not totally col...
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Mixed Economic News-Is the Yen Finally Weakening?
By Ralph Shell | 9:53 AM Aug 16 2012 | 3006 Views | 0 Comments |
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There seems to be a disconnect between the economic news and market action. Specifically, the action of the Spanish IBEX 35 Index, today up 2.09%, and the Italian FTSE MIB Index up 1.08% seems to contradict economic reports released earlier this week. GDP reports showed that both Spain a...
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When Will the ECB Bond Buying Commence?
By Ralph Shell | 9:45 AM Oct 03 2012 | 2569 Views | 0 Comments |
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It was late July when Draghi said he would do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro. This included bond buying from those countries that requested help. Tomorrow, the ECB holds another meeting, this time on the road, at Ljubljana Slovenia.
To date Spain, the next needy debtor-country expected ...
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Mid Week Currency News-The Euro Rallies?
By Ralph Shell | 10:20 AM Oct 31 2012 | 2405 Views | 0 Comments |
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On Tuesday it seems like the markets were mostly concerned with the damage caused by the storm Sandy. For me, the pictures of lower Manhattan were especially fascinating, since, for a number of years, I worked in a building which overlooked The Battery Park and the tip of the island. The storm hit a...
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USD Currency Short Increases-COT Report 12 31 2012
By Ralph Shell | 8:18 AM Jan 07 2013 | 1404 Views | 0 Comments |
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The total net USD position in the currencies we follow increased to a short of 183,017 contracts, up from 177,758 in the previous period. Speculators have been short the USD since the last report in November 2012, when they were small long...
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The Fed Moves-Your Turn ECB
By Ralph Shell | 9:26 AM Dec 13 2012 | 1559 Views | 1 Comments |
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Bernanke has made his policies clear. The Fed will purchase $85B of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities per month going forward as long as the inflation rate is 2.5% or less and the unemployment rate is 6.5% or more. This plan may sound rational, but we suspect the numerical guidel...
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Speculators Reduce Their USD Currency Shorts-COT Report 10 09 2012
By Ralph Shell | 7:45 AM Oct 15 2012 | 2677 Views | 0 Comments |
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During the latest COT reporting period, currency speculators, in the aggregate, reduced their USD short position by over 107K contracts. From the peak USD short position of 267,878 contracts on September 25th, that position has been reduced to 1...
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Markets Await Non-Farm Payroll Report
By Ralph Shell | 9:20 AM Mar 08 2012 | 2862 Views | 0 Comments |
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On the first Friday of each month we get a new Non-Farm Payroll report. Numerous experts contribute their guesses and the average of the guesses is then assembled, presented as the consensus estimate.
Originally the NFP was supposed to be compilation of new hires for manufacturing, construc...
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Markets Prepare for the Next European Summit
By Ralph Shell | 1:22 PM Dec 05 2011 | 3422 Views | 0 Comments |
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Global equity markets are trading higher today, hoping the next European Summit will provide some solutions to the current debt crisis. The US equity markets, following the trend in Europe, are now trading over 1% higher. Early the currency markets have favored the euro and pound a...
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The Euro Continues to Slide
By Ralph Shell | 12:36 PM Nov 14 2011 | 2091 Views | 0 Comments |
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Installation of two unelected technocrats in Italy and Greece, a move designed to please the northern eurozone leaders, and to enforce the austerity they prescribe, provided a brief boost for the euro, as this weeks trade began. Trade at the 1.38 handle for the EURUSD faded quickly, and we ar...
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Will the British Renew Their Version of Quantatitive Easing?
By Ralph Shell | 10:44 AM Feb 07 2012 | 3335 Views | 0 Comments |
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The Forex markets seem mesmerized by negotiations between the Greeks and the troika. With the possibility of getting €15B or there about, of other peoples money to keep your government solvent for a couple of months, is any one going to be really surprised when the Greek's come to t...
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Japanese Yen Weakens Following Trade Balance Data
By Ralph Shell | 7:35 AM Jan 25 2012 | 2718 Views | 1 Comments |
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During the past weeks, as euro fears have caused safe haven seekers to buy the yen, that currency has remained firm. The move was most pronounced in the EURJPY. In April 2011 the pair traded as high as 1.23 before plunging to a low of 97 this month.
The yen strength, though, contains ...
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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