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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Forex Articles
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Will Weekend European News Bring Hope for a Better Week
By Ralph Shell | 11:41 AM May 11 2012 | 3241 Views | 0 Comments | 
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At long last the EURUSD took out the support at the 1.30 area, and worked down to a low of 1.2905. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2933 with hours until forex markets close for the weekend in New York. The bullish euro traders have been wounded by the market but it has not totally col...
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Mixed Economic News-Is the Yen Finally Weakening?
By Ralph Shell | 9:53 AM Aug 16 2012 | 3148 Views | 0 Comments |
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There seems to be a disconnect between the economic news and market action. Specifically, the action of the Spanish IBEX 35 Index, today up 2.09%, and the Italian FTSE MIB Index up 1.08% seems to contradict economic reports released earlier this week. GDP reports showed that both Spain a...
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When Will the ECB Bond Buying Commence?
By Ralph Shell | 9:45 AM Oct 03 2012 | 2691 Views | 0 Comments |
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It was late July when Draghi said he would do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro. This included bond buying from those countries that requested help. Tomorrow, the ECB holds another meeting, this time on the road, at Ljubljana Slovenia.
To date Spain, the next needy debtor-country expected ...
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Mid Week Currency News-The Euro Rallies?
By Ralph Shell | 10:20 AM Oct 31 2012 | 2540 Views | 0 Comments |
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On Tuesday it seems like the markets were mostly concerned with the damage caused by the storm Sandy. For me, the pictures of lower Manhattan were especially fascinating, since, for a number of years, I worked in a building which overlooked The Battery Park and the tip of the island. The storm hit a...
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USD Currency Short Increases-COT Report 12 31 2012
By Ralph Shell | 8:18 AM Jan 07 2013 | 1560 Views | 0 Comments |
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The total net USD position in the currencies we follow increased to a short of 183,017 contracts, up from 177,758 in the previous period. Speculators have been short the USD since the last report in November 2012, when they were small long...
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The Fed Moves-Your Turn ECB
By Ralph Shell | 9:26 AM Dec 13 2012 | 1693 Views | 1 Comments |
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Bernanke has made his policies clear. The Fed will purchase $85B of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities per month going forward as long as the inflation rate is 2.5% or less and the unemployment rate is 6.5% or more. This plan may sound rational, but we suspect the numerical guidel...
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Speculators Reduce Their USD Currency Shorts-COT Report 10 09 2012
By Ralph Shell | 7:45 AM Oct 15 2012 | 2815 Views | 0 Comments |
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During the latest COT reporting period, currency speculators, in the aggregate, reduced their USD short position by over 107K contracts. From the peak USD short position of 267,878 contracts on September 25th, that position has been reduced to 1...
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Markets Await Non-Farm Payroll Report
By Ralph Shell | 9:20 AM Mar 08 2012 | 2938 Views | 0 Comments |
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On the first Friday of each month we get a new Non-Farm Payroll report. Numerous experts contribute their guesses and the average of the guesses is then assembled, presented as the consensus estimate.
Originally the NFP was supposed to be compilation of new hires for manufacturing, construc...
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Markets Prepare for the Next European Summit
By Ralph Shell | 1:22 PM Dec 05 2011 | 3488 Views | 0 Comments |
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Global equity markets are trading higher today, hoping the next European Summit will provide some solutions to the current debt crisis. The US equity markets, following the trend in Europe, are now trading over 1% higher. Early the currency markets have favored the euro and pound a...
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The Euro Continues to Slide
By Ralph Shell | 12:36 PM Nov 14 2011 | 2159 Views | 0 Comments |
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Installation of two unelected technocrats in Italy and Greece, a move designed to please the northern eurozone leaders, and to enforce the austerity they prescribe, provided a brief boost for the euro, as this weeks trade began. Trade at the 1.38 handle for the EURUSD faded quickly, and we ar...
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Will the British Renew Their Version of Quantatitive Easing?
By Ralph Shell | 10:44 AM Feb 07 2012 | 3440 Views | 0 Comments |
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The Forex markets seem mesmerized by negotiations between the Greeks and the troika. With the possibility of getting €15B or there about, of other peoples money to keep your government solvent for a couple of months, is any one going to be really surprised when the Greek's come to t...
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Japanese Yen Weakens Following Trade Balance Data
By Ralph Shell | 7:35 AM Jan 25 2012 | 2778 Views | 1 Comments |
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During the past weeks, as euro fears have caused safe haven seekers to buy the yen, that currency has remained firm. The move was most pronounced in the EURJPY. In April 2011 the pair traded as high as 1.23 before plunging to a low of 97 this month.
The yen strength, though, contains ...
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Currency Markets Calm Despite Abundant Data
By Ralph Shell | 8:18 AM Jan 12 2012 | 3020 Views | 0 Comments |
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Considering the abundance of data and news thrown at the currency and equity markets today, the currency markets, so far, have been unscathed. Both the Bank of England and the ECB issued statements today. Rates were to remain unchanged and the BOE would defer consideration of renewed qua...
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Winners and Losers at Friday's EU Meeting
By Ralph Shell | 12:29 PM Mar 14 2011 | 2315 Views | 0 Comments |
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The euro is advancing today, enjoying the aftermath of Friday's meeting which according tp Ambrose Evans-Pritchard amounted to "capitulation by three vulnerable states on core policies,
and partial loss of sovereignty for the rest of the eurozone."
Greece, lurching ever closer to defau...
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Currencies: Looking Forward After Slower US Growth Report
By Ralph Shell | 12:44 PM Jul 29 2011 | 2357 Views | 0 Comments |
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This morning the currency market's driver was the report that US GDP rate was less than expected. Not only was the 2nd Q 2011 down to 1.3%, but some preceding quarters were down as well. In the 1st Q of 2011 the rate was reduced from 1.9% growth to 0.4%, and the 4th Q of 2011 tumbled fro...
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Markets Higher as Greek Default Thought to be no Longer Imminent
By Ralph Shell | 11:39 AM Jun 29 2011 | 2313 Views | 0 Comments |
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Uncertainty caused by the specter of Greek sovereign debt default had been weighing heavily on markets. Today markets which had suffered because a dearth of good news, and the Greek austerity vote, combined with the German's apparent acceptance of the French plan for private sector bank partic...
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Some Thoughts About Using the COT Reports in Trading
By Ralph Shell | 11:07 AM Feb 02 2012 | 2993 Views | 0 Comments |
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Recently a reader of our COT report expressed some frustration about the lack of a bottom line in the report. Does this information tell me to buy or sell a currency? Always a good question, and usually the answer is unclear. There are a number of reasons for this.
A time lag ex...
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Euro Remains Under Pressure-How Do We Trade It?
By Ralph Shell | 7:22 AM Mar 07 2012 | 2914 Views | 1 Comments |
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For those with an involvement in the value of the euro, this has been a week of heightened angst. The prevailing fear and negativity, a reminder that during a crisis, generally, what can go wrong usually does, seems to be holding the market hostage.
On Monday, the EURUSD continued to trade ...
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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