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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Forex Articles
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Melt Down in the Yen Continues
By Ralph Shell | 10:20 AM Feb 17 2012 | 3083 Views | 1 Comments | 
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An article we wrote on February 1st, we rhetorically asked about a place to sell the yen. Looking then, at the latest COT report available, we noted that speculators were long the yen, and according to the daily CME reports, were adding to those positions. The total open interest in futu...
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Pessimism Returns to the Euro
By Ralph Shell | 11:03 AM Feb 15 2012 | 3325 Views | 3 Comments | 
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Perhaps these markets had become too pollyannaish, unreasonably or illogically optimistic despite conflicting evidence? Tuesday, for example, the important German ZEW Economic Sentiment report came in a positive 5.4, well above the previous period's negative 21.6, and much better than the neg...
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Yen is Making Bad Trades-Do We Sell it?
By Ralph Shell | 10:38 AM Feb 14 2012 | 2942 Views | 0 Comments |
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For months now, Japanese ministers, Bank of Japan officials, and industry leaders have been complaining about the lofty valuation of the Japanese yen. That valuation was making exporters take losses, when attempting to compete with products from other countries which had cheaper labor and a lo...
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Have the Greeks worn Out their Welcome?
By Ralph Shell | 11:19 AM Feb 10 2012 | 2985 Views | 1 Comments |
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Just when the Greeks though they had a deal to get an agreement for the next €120B, some of the Finance Ministers decides the Greeks were failing the austerity tests. Bad habits, we all know are hard to break, but the Greek's adoption of the troika required levels of efficiency and reform...
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The Troika and the Greeks Reach an Agreement
By Ralph Shell | 9:42 AM Feb 09 2012 | 2748 Views | 1 Comments | 
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Finally, there is an agreement between the Greeks and the Troika. Terms of the new austerity plans, punishment for prior deviant fiscal behavior, will commence. For the Greek politicians representing the New Democracy, Pasok, and the Laos Parties, there are many objections to the belt ti...
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Is the Canadian Dollar Really a Commodity Currency?
By Ralph Shell | 10:43 AM Feb 08 2012 | 3135 Views | 0 Comments | 
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With the recent development of the Athabasca Oil Sands in Alberta, awareness of the importance of Canada as an oil producer increased. The recent rejection by the Obama administration, of the proposed Keystone pipeline which would have transported about 900,000 barrels of oil per day to the US...
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Will the British Renew Their Version of Quantatitive Easing?
By Ralph Shell | 10:44 AM Feb 07 2012 | 3320 Views | 0 Comments | 
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The Forex markets seem mesmerized by negotiations between the Greeks and the troika. With the possibility of getting €15B or there about, of other peoples money to keep your government solvent for a couple of months, is any one going to be really surprised when the Greek's come to t...
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US Forex Transactions Reach Record High in October 2011
By Ralph Shell | 12:49 PM Feb 06 2012 | 2815 Views | 0 Comments |
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Forex traders often hear glib number bandied about, describing the vast size of currency markets. Today, a committee of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a survey of North American Foreign Exchange volume for October of 2011.
They estimate the average daily volume of forex tradi...
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Speculators Continue to Sell the USD-COT Data Jan 31 2012
By Ralph Shell | 7:16 AM Feb 06 2012 | 2971 Views | 0 Comments |
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Speculators continue to liquidate their aggregate net USD long. This COT report show the USD long is down to 139,521 contracts, from the previous week's 202,245 long. The high total USD long contracts was 241K in the report from Dec. 27, 2011.
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US Adding Jobs While Canada Losing Them
By Ralph Shell | 10:14 AM Feb 03 2012 | 3362 Views | 0 Comments |
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The US Non-Farm Payroll Report is usually good for a boost in volatility, and such was again the case today. New jobs created were reported to be 243K, well exceeding the anticipated 150K, and better than the 203K added in December. In addition the unemployment rate was reduced to 8.3%.&...
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Some Thoughts About Using the COT Reports in Trading
By Ralph Shell | 11:07 AM Feb 02 2012 | 2921 Views | 0 Comments |
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Recently a reader of our COT report expressed some frustration about the lack of a bottom line in the report. Does this information tell me to buy or sell a currency? Always a good question, and usually the answer is unclear. There are a number of reasons for this.
A time lag ex...
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Is There Long Dollar Liquidation-Where Do We Sell the Yen?
By Ralph Shell | 10:41 AM Feb 01 2012 | 3257 Views | 0 Comments |
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After the many EU summits, to address the myriad of problems, there has usually been a pattern of optimism ahead of the summit, and a sell off after the meetings are over. After the most recent summit, we had a tiny rally followed by a perfunctory sell off on Tuesday. Today's recovery ha...
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Euro Searching For a Key Driver
By Ralph Shell | 10:46 AM Jan 31 2012 | 2771 Views | 0 Comments |
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Trading early on today gave us a recovery rally in the EURUSD, enabling the bulls to once again capture the top side of the 1.32 handle. Then, for the third consecutive day the market sold off, and is now trading at 1.31. Failure of this pair to hold onto the gains is not a good sign for...
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A Good Week for the Euro-Can We Expect More?
By Ralph Shell | 9:07 AM Jan 27 2012 | 3052 Views | 2 Comments |
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When, after five weeks of a EURUSD pair grinding lower, we felt the bear position was too popular, and a rally was due. For the last two weeks, we have had that rally, taking the market from a low of 1.2626 to a high of 1.3183. For those traders good or lucky enough to catch the rally, i...
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Does the Pound Have More to Rally?
By Ralph Shell | 10:40 AM Jan 26 2012 | 2628 Views | 1 Comments |
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Looking at the daily chart of the pound versus the USD, we have a nice tidy nine day rally. Once again we have a market that was heavily favoring the short side of the pound, and the market tricked them, and up we go. Often it appears it is the function of the market to fool as many trad...
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Japanese Yen Weakens Following Trade Balance Data
By Ralph Shell | 7:35 AM Jan 25 2012 | 2702 Views | 1 Comments |
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During the past weeks, as euro fears have caused safe haven seekers to buy the yen, that currency has remained firm. The move was most pronounced in the EURJPY. In April 2011 the pair traded as high as 1.23 before plunging to a low of 97 this month.
The yen strength, though, contains ...
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Has the Euro Rally Attracted More Sellers?
By Ralph Shell | 9:48 AM Jan 24 2012 | 2872 Views | 0 Comments |
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The rally in the EURUSD, long anticipated and welcomed by many, lacks vigor. In the days of trading on an exchange floor where I spent many years, short covering rallies were frantic, noisy affairs as the trapped shorts scrambled to get out.
This rally is different. On-line trading i...
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Observations by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard About Debt Comparisons
By Ralph Shell | 11:47 AM Jan 23 2012 | 2544 Views | 1 Comments |
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As the International Business Editor for The Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a wealth of experience, which he uses to present his articles with incredible clarity. His story today should be a mandatory read for all currency traders.
"America overcomes the debt crisis as Britain...
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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