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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Forex Articles
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Draghi Touts Status Quo - Euro Rallies
By Ralph Shell | 11:04 AM Jan 10 2013 | 1173 Views | 0 Comments | 
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Now that every body feels better about the European economy, a development that ECB President has called "positive contagion" (monthly press conference in Frankfurt earlier today), Europe is on the cusp of recovery. Maybe not right now, but certainly by the Autumn of 2013. The statu...
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What Irish Recovery?
By Ralph Shell | 10:13 AM Jan 09 2013 | 1329 Views | 1 Comments |
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The ECU elites continue to cite the successful 'recovery' in Ireland as evidence their austerity plan is working. Yes, there is some good news. This week, for example, the Irish National Treasury Management Agency sold €2.5B of 2017 bonds. This is the first auction since the b...
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Bear Market in the Yen Loses Momentum
By Ralph Shell | 9:52 AM Jan 08 2013 | 1213 Views | 0 Comments | 
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The newly-elected Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe has been actively talking down the value of the yen. Part of his election campaign was to increase the supply of the yen. This would then end years of deflation. Instead, he would target inflation to increase by 2% per year.&nbs...
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USD Currency Short Increases-COT Report 12 31 2012
By Ralph Shell | 8:18 AM Jan 07 2013 | 1395 Views | 0 Comments | 
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The total net USD position in the currencies we follow increased to a short of 183,017 contracts, up from 177,758 in the previous period. Speculators have been short the USD since the last report in November 2012, when they were small long...
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No Suprises in the NFP Report-How Long Will the Good News Last?
By Ralph Shell | 9:18 AM Jan 04 2013 | 1413 Views | 0 Comments | 
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The much anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report, often a surprise to the market, proved to be a dud. While the total number of new jobs created was about as expected, continuing the tepid expansion, there were some changes of note within the report.
The average work week increased...
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Back to the Numbers for Currency Traders
By Ralph Shell | 9:55 AM Jan 03 2013 | 1270 Views | 1 Comments | 
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After a period when the traders needed to focus on broad macro and political winds affecting equity and currency markets it is now time to return to the mundane analysis of the numbers. This is not to say we will not return to the day when the debate over the size and scope of Washington gover...
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What Fiscal Cliff? American Politicians Show They Can Kick the Can
By Ralph Shell | 9:23 AM Jan 02 2013 | 1395 Views | 3 Comments |
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Another super-hyped end of the year event proved to be mere hyperbole. Republicans knew the media was ready to excoriate them should negotiations fail, so they agreed to tax increases. These increases are theoretically for the rich, but if you are wealthy movie producer, who, collectivel...
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USD Net Short Position Climbs to 109K-COT Report 12 11 2102
By Ralph Shell | 6:50 AM Dec 17 2012 | 1498 Views | 2 Comments |
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The net spec short position in the USD grew this past week from 68K contracts to 109K contracts. While the aggregate net position is USD short, the specs do have a very big position short the yen and long the USD. The position in the...
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Will the Yen Bear Market Continue After the Election?
By Ralph Shell | 8:25 AM Dec 14 2012 | 1613 Views | 0 Comments | 
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On Sunday December 16th, the Japanese will hold an election. The favorite, former PM Shinzo Abe, hopes to lead the Liberal Democratic Party to victory. Polls continue to project Abe to be the winner; he claims his policies will jolt the economy out of a 20-year slump that has produced fi...
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The Fed Moves-Your Turn ECB
By Ralph Shell | 9:26 AM Dec 13 2012 | 1550 Views | 1 Comments |
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Bernanke has made his policies clear. The Fed will purchase $85B of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities per month going forward as long as the inflation rate is 2.5% or less and the unemployment rate is 6.5% or more. This plan may sound rational, but we suspect the numerical guidel...
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Are the Forex Markets Ready for the News?
By Ralph Shell | 8:21 AM Dec 12 2012 | 1545 Views | 0 Comments |
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We are quickly gliding into the holiday season, a period when the market volatility contracts and the volume slows. This may not be how the forex markets, as well as equities, play out this year.
Markets are usually expected to peer into the future, and make an educated guess how a risk eve...
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Specs Go Short the USD-COT Report 12 04 2012
By Ralph Shell | 7:21 AM Dec 10 2012 | 1897 Views | 0 Comments |
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After moving to the long side of the USD only two weeks ago, specs again flipped back to the short side of the USD. This is the total of the net positions of the currencies we review. That net position is now short 67,999 contracts o...
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NFP Comments and Weekly Forex Summary
By Ralph Shell | 9:20 AM Dec 07 2012 | 1715 Views | 0 Comments |
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Reports on the US labor statistics continue to portray the economy in a recovery mode. Since expectations for job growth were a smallish 85K, the 146K was a friendly number. The unemployment number, 7.7%, likewise sounded great, down from 7.9%, until you look at the details. The un...
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Did Draghi's Comments Move the Euro Down Today?
By Ralph Shell | 9:49 AM Dec 06 2012 | 1538 Views | 0 Comments |
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Last summer, when the euro bears were celebrating their success, ECB President Draghi boisterously asserted he had the weapons to defend the euro and avert a debt crisis. It worked: sovereign debt interest rates came down, Spain and Italy were both able to sell debt at reasonable rates, and the euro...
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Euro Rally Stalls-Is it Over?
By Ralph Shell | 8:53 AM Dec 05 2012 | 1674 Views | 0 Comments |
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After the euro bulls had their way for five days versus the USD (FXE, UUP), the sixth day, which took the market above the 1.3125 area, has seemingly given us a reversal. There was some negative news that may have been unnerving for the euro.
Spain held an auction today (Wednesday) for mos...
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Reserve Bank of Australia Reduces Bank Rate-What is Next?
By Ralph Shell | 9:12 AM Dec 04 2012 | 1718 Views | 2 Comments |
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As anticipated, the Reserve Bank of Australia reduce their minimum bank rate to 3%. This rate, previously visited during the financial crises of 2009, ties the record low of the past fifty two years. Most economists had anticipated the 25 basis point reduction. The market seemed re...
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Forex Review and Some Thoughts Going Forward
By Ralph Shell | 9:41 AM Nov 30 2012 | 1614 Views | 0 Comments |
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Again the Greek debt problem has been in the spotlight this week. Traders, as well as the politicians involved, have been in a party mood, having successfully kicked the can down the road. Frau Merkel is hopeful a Greek default is no longer a possibility, and German taxpayers will not be made aware ...
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Is the Bear Yen Position Becoming Too Popular?
By Ralph Shell | 9:46 AM Nov 29 2012 | 1994 Views | 0 Comments | 
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There are numerous reasons to be short the yen. Japan has demographic problem, a slumping economy seemingly headed for another recession, a record-high debt-to-GDP ratio, and recently a trade deficit, caused in part by the elevated level of the yen.
There are other fundamental reasons to be beari...
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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