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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Forex Articles
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Forex Review and Some Thoughts Going Forward
By Ralph Shell | 9:41 AM Nov 30 2012 | 1620 Views | 0 Comments | 
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Again the Greek debt problem has been in the spotlight this week. Traders, as well as the politicians involved, have been in a party mood, having successfully kicked the can down the road. Frau Merkel is hopeful a Greek default is no longer a possibility, and German taxpayers will not be made aware ...
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Is the Bear Yen Position Becoming Too Popular?
By Ralph Shell | 9:46 AM Nov 29 2012 | 2016 Views | 0 Comments | 
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There are numerous reasons to be short the yen. Japan has demographic problem, a slumping economy seemingly headed for another recession, a record-high debt-to-GDP ratio, and recently a trade deficit, caused in part by the elevated level of the yen.
There are other fundamental reasons to be beari...
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How Will Markets Discount the "Fiscal Cliff?"
By Ralph Shell | 9:11 AM Nov 28 2012 | 1701 Views | 0 Comments | 
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Often markets, confronted by a forthcoming risk event, will weigh the pros and cons of an anticipated outcome. Price will be determined by the collective judgement of the market appraising the involved risk. Once the outcome of the event is known, the market is relieved and any risk insurance that h...
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Speculators Flip to Long Side of the USD-COT Report Nov 20 2012
By Ralph Shell | 6:25 AM Nov 27 2012 | 1888 Views | 0 Comments |
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The current COT report show that the net combined position of currency speculators flipped to the long side of the USD. Flipping positions is not a common occurrence. Currency speculators had been short the USD for the past three months. A...
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Will the Greek Debt Meetings Ever Stop?
By Ralph Shell | 9:52 AM Nov 26 2012 | 1757 Views | 0 Comments |
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The electoral term of the 17th Bundestag commenced the 27th of October 2009. If that body is not dissolved early, a new election will be held for the 18th Bundestag between the 28th of August 2013, and the 27th of October 2013. This pending election combined with the never-ending Greek debt drama po...
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Stocks Higher in Black Friday Trade and USD Sinks
By Ralph Shell | 10:00 AM Nov 23 2012 | 1687 Views | 0 Comments | 
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Equities have continued their rally with no negative news to derail the week's earlier trade. Fears of the 'fiscal cliff' are off the front page as President Obama tours South East Asia on what might be called a mystery tour. Currently, the US Equity averages are up .7%, following the lead of the Eu...
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More Bad News for the Yen as Exports Slow
By Ralph Shell | 9:58 AM Nov 21 2012 | 1785 Views | 0 Comments |
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It was only a week ago when we sensed some traders, wary of dithering by the Euro Finance Ministers, and concerned by the 'fiscal cliff' in the US, were searching for a safe haven. Then, we cautioned, it was best not to consider the yen, a candidate for haven status. We said:
"The Japanese e...
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Another Greek Debt Meeting, Another Bernanke Speech-Do They Matter?
By Ralph Shell | 9:31 AM Nov 20 2012 | 2232 Views | 0 Comments | 
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Once again the euro finance ministers assembled for another meeting in Brussels to discuss the Greek bailout. German Finance Minister Wolfang Schaueble, asked if there would be a new programme for Greece: "I said we have a gap within the existing programme. You can see from that that we have a gap. ...
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Will the Recession Blight Spread to England Next?
By Ralph Shell | 9:56 AM Nov 16 2012 | 1867 Views | 1 Comments |
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This past week it was confirmed the EU, with two consecutive negative quarterly GDP numbers, officially slipped into a recession. With the Brits' biggest trading block contracting, can the UK economy be far behind?
Had it not been for the London Summer Olympics, which provided a spurt of su...
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Markets Mixed Signals-Sell the Loonie?
By Ralph Shell | 10:02 AM Nov 15 2012 | 1917 Views | 0 Comments |
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Sometimes a market is judged not by the news, but rather by how the market reacts to the news. A market that gets bullish news and then fails to rally has just flashed a caution signal. Probably the most common reason a market fails to perform is the news has already been fully anticipated by the ma...
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Is the Euro Making a Bottom?
By Ralph Shell | 9:21 AM Nov 14 2012 | 2037 Views | 3 Comments |
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When traders get really good and bearish, how often does a market then turn around? I have often felt that it is the markets function to fool as many people as possible. After all, if it were easy every one would be a trader.
The Euro versus the USD, aside from a few minor rallies, has bee...
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US Consumers Not Concerned About Fiscal Cliff
By Ralph Shell | 10:29 AM Nov 09 2012 | 2143 Views | 0 Comments |
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The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report released Friday November 9th showed the optimism had increased to 84.9, better than an anticipated 82.9, and 82.6 in the prior period; this soaring optimism is up from numbers in the mid-sixties a year ago, and is the best consumer attitude since ...
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Post Election Volatility Fails to Impact the USD
By Ralph Shell | 10:00 AM Nov 08 2012 | 2282 Views | 0 Comments |
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Equities markets took a tumble in the US yesterday. Some want to attribute the sell-off to the US election. Granted, these remarks did not originate with Obama supporters, but the assessment may be a partial explanation for the lower market. Rich Ackerman in Zero Hedge had these comments:
"The Do...
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Will America's Elections Move the Markets?
By Ralph Shell | 9:48 AM Nov 06 2012 | 2118 Views | 0 Comments |
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Election day has always been fascinating, perhaps because my first one was so memorable. I was eleven years old when my father took me to a Democrat Party victory celebration in Dayton Ohio. My father was not a politician but when he received his law degree in the early part of the depression, there...
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Will the Weekly Forex Charts Show Us the Way?
By Ralph Shell | 10:58 AM Nov 02 2012 | 2049 Views | 0 Comments | 
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With the weekend nearly upon us, it is perhaps best to take a step back and try to determine if a longer view of the present gives us a better glimpse of the future. When looking at the weekly charts from this week, we assume the markets have assimilated data from this weeks reports.
Today (Frid...
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A Non-Farm Payroll Trading Opportunity
By Ralph Shell | 10:05 AM Nov 01 2012 | 2547 Views | 0 Comments |
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The Non Farm Payroll report comes out the first week of every month and is usually good for more than a little volatility. Taking a position in advance of the report's release, however, can be a real crap shoot. The actual NFP numbers can show a big variation from the number that had been forecast f...
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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