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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Forex Articles
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Some Longer Term Views- US Weekly Jobless Claims Soar
By Ralph Shell | 10:28 AM Oct 18 2012 | 2630 Views | 0 Comments | 
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Last week's sharp reduction in the initial jobless claims caused quite a stir. The number, 339K, was well under the guesses, and the biggest reduction in ages. Some observers even suggested this number from the Dept. of Labor was merely a boost in the Obama re-election campaign. Could that really be...
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Will the EU Summit Results Match Expectations?
By Ralph Shell | 9:43 AM Oct 17 2012 | 2491 Views | 0 Comments | 
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Anticipating positive results from another EU Summit, the Euro (EURUSD, FXE, UUP, UDN) has moved higher this week, breaking to the top side of the pennant formation on the chart.
Earlier, Spain got a boost when the Germans seemed to moderate bail out terms. A line of credit for the Spaniar...
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Are the Canadian Dollar Longs Starting to Sell?
By Ralph Shell | 9:35 AM Oct 16 2012 | 2981 Views | 1 Comments | 
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Since the beginning of August, currency futures speculators have been putting on a very large long position in the Canadian Dollar. According to the latest COT report, the spec long was down from the high, 139.3K contracts on the September 18 report, but only to 122.7K. As we pointed out, the spec p...
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Speculators Reduce Their USD Currency Shorts-COT Report 10 09 2012
By Ralph Shell | 7:45 AM Oct 15 2012 | 2817 Views | 0 Comments | 
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During the latest COT reporting period, currency speculators, in the aggregate, reduced their USD short position by over 107K contracts. From the peak USD short position of 267,878 contracts on September 25th, that position has been reduced to 1...
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When Will Japan Intervene to Weaken the Yen?
By Ralph Shell | 10:11 AM Oct 12 2012 | 2789 Views | 0 Comments |
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The IMF-World Bank Tokyo convention of super bankers has attracted 20,000 attendees, including their staff and friends. Missing from this group is the Chinese foreign minister, and the head of the Chinese central bank. Replacing them are their assistants. This seems to be a snub to the Japanese beca...
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Forex Markets Giving Mixed Signals
By Ralph Shell | 9:52 AM Oct 11 2012 | 2704 Views | 0 Comments |
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Last evening the bond rating company S&P reduced the ratings of Spanish sovereign debt toward the junk level. As might be expected, this proved bearish on the euro versus the USD, taking the pair down close to the 200-day SMA at 1.2825. Then it bounced and has since rallied to the 1.2940 area.
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Warnings Passed Out by the IMF-World Bank to Europe and Others
By Ralph Shell | 10:14 AM Oct 10 2012 | 2661 Views | 0 Comments |
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Preceding the meeting of the ecumenical council of bankers from the IMF-World Bank in Tokyo this week, this esteemed body is busy passing out warnings. According to SpiegalOnline today they said the IMF Demands Swift Banking Union in Europe:
"The International Monetary Fund is losing ...
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European Meetings Galore-Markets Wary
By Ralph Shell | 10:09 AM Oct 09 2012 | 2818 Views | 0 Comments | 
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An International Monetary Fund report today cut the global economic growth rate to 3.3%, the slowest since 2009. Unless measures are taken by the US and Europe, they say the chances are "alarmingly high" that the slow-down will gain momentum. With unemployment in Europe 11.4%, further contraction in...
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Commodity Currency Longs Reduce Positions-COT Report 10 02 2012
By Ralph Shell | 7:11 AM Oct 08 2012 | 2738 Views | 0 Comments |
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Commodity currency longs reduced some of their longs versus the USD in the latest reporting period. The exception was in the NZ$, a small market where they hold about 89% of the long side. The reduction in the Canadian Dollar long wa...
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Yet Another Non-Farm Payroll Surprise
By Ralph Shell | 9:41 AM Oct 05 2012 | 2932 Views | 0 Comments | 
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Today's NFP report produced, guess what, another surprise. Before going there, however, it is best to review the previous report. The NFP for August was terrible, with only 96K jobs created, and there was a 20K downward adjustment in the July report. Even more damaging was the report ...
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Some Comments on the Euro and the Australian Dollar
By Ralph Shell | 10:26 AM Oct 04 2012 | 3116 Views | 0 Comments |
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ECB President Mario Draghi took his team of traveling bankers to Ljubljana, Slovenia, population about 272K, and about 801km. away from Frankfurt. Despite the new venue, it does not appear the bankers have any different policies that will address the various needs and wishes of all parties.
As ex...
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When Will the ECB Bond Buying Commence?
By Ralph Shell | 9:45 AM Oct 03 2012 | 2692 Views | 0 Comments |
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It was late July when Draghi said he would do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro. This included bond buying from those countries that requested help. Tomorrow, the ECB holds another meeting, this time on the road, at Ljubljana Slovenia.
To date Spain, the next needy debtor-country expected ...
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Speculators Short USD Position Up Again-COT Report 09 25 2012
By Ralph Shell | 8:33 AM Oct 01 2012 | 2858 Views | 0 Comments |
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Once again the speculators combined net short position in the USD climbed higher. It is now up to 267,878 total contracts in the currencies and the DI tabulated below. The only remaining USD long position was versus the euro. There remains short...
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Will the Loonie's Popularity Last?
By Ralph Shell | 9:49 AM Sep 27 2012 | 3400 Views | 1 Comments |
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If we can use the Canadian Dollar futures markets as a barometer, speculators have become quite bullish on the loonie. In our recent quarterly review of the volume changes in currency trading, we noted the remaining open interest in the C$ was 207K contracts when the September futures contract expir...
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Any Market Surprises Coming at the End of Quarter Three?
By Ralph Shell | 9:37 AM Sep 26 2012 | 3085 Views | 0 Comments |
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How many times do we get end of the quarter moves in markets simply because it is the end of an accounting period? A money manager who is paid a performance bonus computed at the end of the quarter, might be tempted to add to winning positions, buying as high as possible near the close, to enhance t...
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Will QE 3 Really Damage the US Dollar?
By Ralph Shell | 10:19 AM Sep 25 2012 | 3043 Views | 0 Comments |
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When the Fed announced last week they were going to resume the expansion of their balance sheet with another edition of QE, traders immediate reaction was to sell the USD and buy commodities. Positions were assumed accordingly, but we wonder if this analysis might be too simplistic.
Monday, in Th...
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Weekly Forex Review and Some Thoughts Going Forward
By Ralph Shell | 9:33 AM Sep 21 2012 | 3565 Views | 0 Comments |
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EURUSD
The big move in the euro happened the week before last, and this week's trade has been a consolidation, trying to hold above the 1.30 handle. The high for the last two week's trade is a twin top at 1.3170. Anticipated support at the 1.30 level was violated briefly, only to come...
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Quarterly Review of Changes in the Volume of the Currency Futures Trade
By Ralph Shell | 10:05 AM Sep 20 2012 | 3118 Views | 0 Comments |
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Following the expiration of the currency futures each quarter, we like to analyze the remaining volume of open trades. In doing so, we attempt to glean information about trader participation and preferences in the currency markets.
Granted, the futures trade is a mere fraction of the cash forex t...
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Will the Carry Trade Continue to Favor Australia?
By Ralph Shell | 10:26 AM Sep 18 2012 | 2812 Views | 0 Comments |
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In late August we looked at the Aussie Dollar and thought it was due for a sell-off, and it did for a modest couple hundred points. Then it turned around and rallied from 1.0165 to a high of 1.0624. It has since backed off from the high, but remains above the 1.04 handle. Where do ...
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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