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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Total Speculator USD Longs Grows to 219.6K Contracts-COT Repart for Period Ending Jan 17, 2012
Submitted by Ralph Shell
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7:03 AM Jan 23 2012
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3250 Views |
0 Comments
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 (4 Votes)
Speculators continued to add to their short positions in the euro and the pound. The total euro net short was 187,876 contracts of futures and delta adjusted options, up from the previous week's 182,037. For the British pound, specs increased their shorts from 55,578 to 65,857 contracts. There was a slight increase in the C$ short positions, specs reduced their SF shorts.
In the A$, the yen and the NZ$, speculators were buyers of these currencies versus sales of the USD. The total longs in the A$ went up from 60038 to 63,409 contracts. In the yen the longs went up to 59,334 contracts, and the very small NZ$ market increased their Kiwi longs to 10,730 contracts.
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US Dollar Index: The was a small reduction in the spec long ownership. but specs of both sizes remain committed to the USD. Large specs are a 7.5 ratio long and the small specs are a 3 to 1 long. The total spec long the DI is a near record 61.863 contracts.
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Euro (EUR/USD): Trading remains active on the largest traded currency contract, and the OI continued to grow. The euro remained a popular short for specs. The large spec is a 6.6 ratio short, and the small short is a little less than a 2 ratio short. Spreading (option trading) remains active with the OI in options up 5.4K contracts, and is 10.2% of the total trade. So far, we do not see evidence the euro's end of the week rally has caused much short covering.
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British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): All specs seemed committed to the short size of the pound. Both size specs are short in the neighborhood of 2.7 ratio short. It is too early for the CME daily open interest report from Friday, but we would guess there was short covering behind part of Friday's rally.
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Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): Small spec joined the larger specs as the small one flipped their position to the long side of the yen. The total Japanese yen long now exceeds 59K, bigger than when the Japanese government intervened to chase out longs during late October. Then the specs were long about 57K contracts.
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Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): Both size specs remain short the SF. There were few changes in the OI during the period.
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Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): Large and small specs in the C$ remain on different sides of the market, though the large specs have the bigger net C$ position. This brings the total net C$ large spec position to a bit better than a 2 to 1 short.
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New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): The OI increased almost 33% in this very small market. Most of the 6.8K contracts increased in the Kiwi occurred when the large spec was an active buyer.
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Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): The total volume in the Aussie Dollar grew in the period, as the big and small specs added to their longs. The total net long was up to 63.4, and the total OI in the A$ is up to 142K. Spreading does amount to 3.5% of the A$ trade.
| Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined, data through January 17, 2012 |
| US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
69,030
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51,869
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6,930
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9,932
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2,558
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6,411
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58,724
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| Change:
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-540
|
-805
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-1,013
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7
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1,109
|
249
|
-644
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
75.1
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10.0
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14.4
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3.7
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9.3
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85.1
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| Euro (EUR/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
350,074
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28,344
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186,939
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37,315
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66,596
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248,835
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60,959
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| Change:
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14,343
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-2,434
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3,019
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2,311
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2,697
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9,046
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3,207
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| % Open Interest:
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8.1
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53.4
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10.7
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19.0
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71.1
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17.4
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| British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
218,870
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23,308
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65,500
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14,597
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38,263
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176,922
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111,065
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| Change:
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14,904
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-775
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5,689
|
1,114
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4,930
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12,820
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2,541
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| % Open Interest:
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100.0
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10.6
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29.9
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6.7
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17.5
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80.8
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50.7
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| Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
174,250
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78,333
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19,237
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26,941
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26,671
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66,722
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126,089
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| Change:
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5,082
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1,692
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2,398
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2,252
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-1,734
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1,019
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4,299
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| % Open Interest:
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|
45.0
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11.0
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15.5
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15.3
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38.3
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72.4
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| Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
44,828
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3,894
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16,928
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8,016
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19,953
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30,755
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5,783
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| Change:
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152
|
-504
|
331
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1,251
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-1,180
|
-878
|
718
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| % Open Interest:
|
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8.7
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37.8
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17.9
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44.5
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68.6
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12.9
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| Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
129,111
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25,097
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53,596
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28,534
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22,553
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72,655
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50,137
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| Change:
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2,668
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2,073
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2,148
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-2,450
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1,528
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2,721
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-1,333
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
19.4
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41.5
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22.1
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17.5
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56.3
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38.8
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| New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
20,955
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16,195
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6,740
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2,916
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1,641
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1,478
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12,208
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| Change:
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6,782
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5,537
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1,111
|
309
|
-149
|
936
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5,820
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
77.3
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32.2
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13.9
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7.8
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7.1
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58.3
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| Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
141,885
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83,024
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28,823
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27,695
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18,486
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26,253
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89,662
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| Change:
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9,888
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4,556
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4,136
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2,226
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-725
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3,215
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6,585
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
58.5
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20.3
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19.5
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13.0
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18.5
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63.2
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To view the COT report released by the CFTC please see the attached file.
For general information about the COT report please see the article The CFTC Commitment of Trader Report
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Comments
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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