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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Speculators increase Their US Dollar Long-COT Report Data 02 14 2012
Submitted by Ralph Shell
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6:51 AM Feb 20 2012
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3089 Views |
0 Comments
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 (6 Votes)
The speculative net long in the USD increased during the period ending on 02 14 2012 to 126,700 contracts, up from the previous weeks 78,072. The biggest position shift this week was in the Japanese yen where the big specs liquidated a portion of their long by 36K contracts.
The short positions increased nominally in the euro and the pound, and by over 5.3K in the small SF contract. The speculative increase in the C$ increased by 6.5K contracts.
Speculators have been consistently long the USD since they flipped to the position in the report from September 13th, 2011. During this five month period, the speculative USD long exceeded 200K eight different weeks. The largest spec long was 241K on Dec. 27, 2011.
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US Dollar Index:Speculators remain committed to the long side of the USD, but they did make small position reductions. Large specs are a 3.6 ratio long and the small spec is a 5 to 1 long. Large specs are the biggest players in this market.
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Euro (EUR/USD): There was little change in the euro contract during the latest week. Specs remained short and added to their position by over 7K contracts taking them up to a 173K total. The bulk of the spec short is held by the big specs. Spreading (options) remains a large 9.8% of the total OI.
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British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): Large specs increased their bearish bets in the pound, and are now a 2.4 ratio short. The small spec position is modest.
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Japanese Yen (JPY/USD):In this market the large specs had been long, and the small specs were short the yen.Small specs were the winners as the yen weakened. Large specs reduced their long by about 26K. The OI in futures went down after the cut off for this report so there was more liquidation. Small specs increased their short yen position by over 9K contracts.
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Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): The OI increased about 10% because there was spec selling done by the large spec and commercial buying. The large specs are now a 3 to 1 short.
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Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): Both spec groups are now in agreement and are long the C$, adding about 7K to their total net position. Neither group is loaded up long so conditions are right for the long OI to build. Spreading is 4.4% of the total market.
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New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): The large spec continued to add to his long position, now a 5.9 ratio long. Small specs are now big participants in this market, but they did make a small reduction in their long.
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Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): There was a small reduction in the total spec long in the A$, taking it down to 86.7K. This is the second largest spec position after only the short position in the euro. The large specs are a 4.8 ratio long.
| Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined, data through February 14, 2012 |
| US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
52,476
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38,334
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10,415
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8,837
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1,716
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4,150
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39,191
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| Change:
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-1,388
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-1,254
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3,655
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-775
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-3,063
|
636
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-1,984
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
73.1
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19.8
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16.8
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3.3
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7.9
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74.7
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| Euro (EUR/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
334,469
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26,978
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171,287
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36,471
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65,254
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238,142
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65,049
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| Change:
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8,621
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-4,978
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1,911
|
115
|
548
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7,174
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-148
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| % Open Interest:
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8.1
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51.2
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10.9
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19.5
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71.2
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19.4
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| British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
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| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
196,862
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29,180
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69,555
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19,791
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28,254
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145,911
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97,072
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| Change:
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-3,008
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986
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8,426
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-5
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-683
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-4,274
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-11,035
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| % Open Interest:
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14.8
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35.3
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10.1
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14.4
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74.1
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49.3
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| Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
166,355
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64,129
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34,804
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23,063
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39,384
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75,059
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88,063
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| Change:
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-21,351
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-20,737
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5,510
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-4,945
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4,839
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3,428
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-32,604
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| % Open Interest:
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38.5
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20.9
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13.9
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23.7
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45.1
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52.9
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| Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
50,276
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8,451
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24,180
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10,366
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15,829
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30,139
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8,948
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| Change:
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5,417
|
341
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6,404
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-65
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-683
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5,273
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-173
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| % Open Interest:
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16.8
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48.1
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20.6
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31.5
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59.9
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17.8
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| Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
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| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
130,299
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38,544
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28,883
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37,463
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21,890
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48,565
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73,798
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| Change:
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1,110
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1,562
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-5,882
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548
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1,401
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-1,031
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5,560
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| % Open Interest:
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29.6
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22.2
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28.8
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16.8
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37.3
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56.6
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| New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
36,704
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29,202
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5,332
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4,312
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1,679
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2,769
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29,272
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| Change:
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1,684
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1,001
|
466
|
-135
|
145
|
777
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1,032
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| % Open Interest:
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79.6
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14.5
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11.7
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4.6
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7.5
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79.8
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| Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
160,729
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93,765
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19,667
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35,571
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22,944
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25,722
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112,446
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| Change:
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3,243
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-436
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1,079
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940
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1,978
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2,863
|
311
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| % Open Interest:
|
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58.3
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12.2
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22.1
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14.3
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16.0
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70.0
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To view the COT report released by the CFTC please see the attached file.
For general information about the COT report please see the article The CFTC Commitment of Trader Report
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Comments
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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