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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Speculators Continue to Slash USD Long Positions- Latest COT Report Reveals
Submitted by Ralph Shell
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7:04 AM May 07 2012
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2880 Views |
0 Comments
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 (4 Votes)
The latest CFTC COT report reveals the speculators cut their net long position in the USD to 50,245 contracts. This is down from 210,926 contracts only four weeks ago in the April 10, 2012 period.
Speculators were active selling the USD and buying the C$, an increase of about 33K contracts, buying 15K contracts of the pound versus sales of the USD, and buying about 12.6K contracts of the Aussie Dollar.
The euro has been a favorite short for the specs for many weeks now. They did make a minor reduction in their short position, down 7K contracts, to 144k Contracts. There were also nominal reductions in the spec shorts of the SF, and the yen.
There were no position flips this week. It is interesting to note the open interest in the British pound is a very large 195.5K contracts. Is this action related to reports we here the wealthy French are actively moving assets out of France to England?
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US Dollar Index: Large spec increased both their buying and selling of the DI, but did reduce the net long position by 2.3K. They remain long but less than a 2 ratio. The small spec reduced his long by about 2.8K and remains a 2.6 ratio long.
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Euro (EUR/USD): There was little change in the positions during the period. Small specs are about a 2 ratio short, and the large spec is a 4 to 1 short. The total spec short interest in the euro was reduced to about 144k, down from 151K in the prior week.
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British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): The OI is up and the popularity of the pound continues to grow with the specs. The total pound long is approaching 37.3K. The small specs are now a 2 ratio long.
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Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): The yen remains a favorite spec short but there has been little change in positions during the last period. The large spec is a 4.8 to 1 short and the small spec is a 3.5 ratio short. There has been little liquidation in these positions even though the yen has been firm.
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Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): The large spec remains short by about a 3.5 ratio, but the small trader is taking his position close to even. The total franc short is down to 15K contracts.
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Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): There was a big surge in buying of the C$, as the total spec long increased from 67.9K to 101.9k. Large specs are now a 6 to 1 long, while the small spec is a modest 2.6 long. The market action has not favored the new C$ longs.
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New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): There was little change in this very small market. Both size specs are long by about a 3 to 1 ratio. Recent market action has not favored the longs.
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Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): Popularity returned to the Aussie as both size specs increased their long exposure. Their total longs increased to 62.3K contracts, up from 49.7 in the prior week. Large specs are a 2,3 ratio long.
| Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined, data through May 1, 2012 |
| US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK) |
| |
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(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
46,062
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31,377
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17,822
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5,887
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2,241
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7,314
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24,516
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| Change:
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2,588
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4,774
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7,165
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-3,421
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-661
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1,011
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-4,140
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| % Open Interest:
|
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68.1
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38.7
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12.8
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4.9
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15.9
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53.2
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| Euro (EUR/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
321,316
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33,938
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138,622
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33,953
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73,258
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222,762
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78,772
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| Change:
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-9,805
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-1,292
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-8,736
|
708
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1,095
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-8,302
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-1,246
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| % Open Interest:
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10.6
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43.1
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10.6
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22.8
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69.3
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24.5
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| British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
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| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
195,493
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52,512
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36,912
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42,531
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20,864
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98,109
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135,376
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| Change:
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16,282
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5,426
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-3,212
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5,358
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-1,221
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4,861
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20,077
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| % Open Interest:
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26.9
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18.9
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21.8
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10.7
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50.2
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69.2
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| Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
154,940
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13,300
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64,936
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13,475
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48,152
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121,543
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35,230
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| Change:
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3,835
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900
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-3,406
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544
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3,710
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1,821
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2,962
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| % Open Interest:
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8.6
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41.9
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8.7
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31.1
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78.4
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22.7
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| Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
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| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
42,582
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5,692
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20,003
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13,920
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14,670
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22,847
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7,786
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| Change:
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1,513
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1,380
|
-950
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1,111
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-775
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-980
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3,235
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| % Open Interest:
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13.4
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47.0
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32.7
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34.5
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53.7
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18.3
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| Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
172,283
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83,703
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13,946
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51,566
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19,417
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32,991
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134,897
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| Change:
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28,896
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21,311
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-4,402
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8,095
|
-230
|
-807
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33,230
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| % Open Interest:
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48.6
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8.1
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29.9
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11.3
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19.1
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78.3
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| New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
19,815
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12,155
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4,130
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4,233
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1,378
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3,302
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14,182
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| Change:
|
689
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-1,829
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-368
|
496
|
-119
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1,998
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1,152
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| % Open Interest:
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61.3
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20.8
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21.4
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7.0
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16.7
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71.6
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| Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
157,802
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88,669
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36,519
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30,712
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20,594
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33,238
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95,506
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| Change:
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949
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8,214
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1,884
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3,815
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-2,437
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-11,495
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1,088
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| % Open Interest:
|
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56.2
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23.1
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19.5
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13.1
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21.1
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60.5
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To view the COT report released by the CFTC please see the attached file.
For general information about the COT report please see the article The CFTC Commitment of Trader Report
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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