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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Currency Speculators Set New Record for USD Longs, COT Report w/e 25 May 2012
Submitted by Ralph Shell
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5:53 6 05 2012
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3437 Views |
0 Comments
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 (7 Votes)
The USD remains popular with the speculators as they push their longs up to 310,502K contracts. Only the yen and the C$ seem to be substitutes for the USD, in the specs views of the current state of affairs. Look for new proposals to gain momentum and build for planning success later in the week.
We see little on the table to think the euro solution will reach fruition, but as the Germans become motivated toward a successful conclusion, these meetings may assume some importance. Specs now hold record USD longs.
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US Dollar Index: As the USD gains favor, the specs have filled a void by continuing to buy the DI. Spec are now better than 3 to 1 ratio longs.
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Euro (EUR/USD): The demise of the euro continues to be the same theme in currency markets. The total spec short in the euro has soared to above 243K. The small spec is a 2 ratio short and the large spec is a 5 ratio short. Spreading or the option trade now amounts to over 12.5% of the total euro trade.
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British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): Trade in the Pound remains large but somewhat indecisive. Both size specs remain token longs in the pound, but seem to be moving close to even.
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Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): As fear propels the flow of money from the euro, specs are trying on the long yen position, hoping this will provide some safety features. The BOJ is opposed to this move.
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Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): The SF remains a proxy for the euro, as the open interest builds. The large spec is now about a 5 to 1 short the franc, and the small spec is a 4 to 1 ratio short. Specs regard the SNB's pledge to hold the peg with the euro as the euro plunges as iron clad. We wonder about this.
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Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): Specs hold the biggest long in any currency other than the USD, in the loonie. Part of this may be commercial trade as the C$ slips versus the USD.
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New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): Both the NZ$ and the A$ are losing spec favor. In both the two currencies specs have been sellers versus the USD. As the evidence increasingly shows the Chinese economy is slowing the bulls peal out of the commodity currencies.
| Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined, data through May 29, 2012 |
| US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK) |
| |
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(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
77,603
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60,725
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18,760
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6,979
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1,677
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8,693
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55,960
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| Change:
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2,403
|
1,927
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-6,962
|
915
|
48
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-562
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9,193
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
78.2
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24.2
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9.0
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2.2
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11.2
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72.1
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| Euro (EUR/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
484,430
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41,957
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242,084
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42,521
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85,445
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339,289
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96,238
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| Change:
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40,304
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6,904
|
12,718
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3,746
|
2,905
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15,033
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10,060
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
8.7
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50.0
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8.8
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17.6
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70.0
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19.9
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| British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
189,686
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36,167
|
33,340
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26,886
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23,977
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122,449
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128,185
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| Change:
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-1,241
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-4,885
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3,793
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-1,970
|
824
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4,198
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-7,274
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| % Open Interest:
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19.1
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17.6
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14.2
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12.6
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64.6
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67.6
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| Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
153,657
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21,708
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32,966
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17,807
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42,190
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108,832
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73,192
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| Change:
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-1,461
|
1,317
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-5,348
|
-225
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-1,922
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-2,158
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6,204
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| % Open Interest:
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14.1
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21.5
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11.6
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27.5
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70.8
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47.6
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| Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
73,961
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6,794
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37,410
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7,908
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30,593
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58,530
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5,230
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| Change:
|
758
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1,954
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-2,342
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-1,736
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1,183
|
86
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1,463
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
9.2
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50.6
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10.7
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41.4
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79.1
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7.1
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| Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
143,409
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48,866
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13,132
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35,914
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28,145
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51,381
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94,884
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| Change:
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-2,390
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-9,036
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-4,961
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-2,709
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1,292
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6,939
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-1,137
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| % Open Interest:
|
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34.1
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9.2
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25.0
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19.6
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35.8
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66.2
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| New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
21,453
|
5,798
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11,006
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1,680
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3,277
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13,817
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7,012
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| Change:
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14
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-2,620
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1,079
|
57
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-90
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2,419
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-1,133
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| % Open Interest:
|
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27.0
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51.3
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7.8
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15.3
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64.4
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32.7
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| Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
162,028
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14,217
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50,378
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18,301
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32,102
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119,900
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69,938
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| Change:
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4,718
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-15,719
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3,373
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-4,085
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2,263
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23,241
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-2,200
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
8.8
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31.1
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11.3
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19.8
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74.0
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43.2
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To view the COT Report released by the CFTC, please see the attached file.
For general information about the COT report please see the article The CFTC Commitment of Trader Report
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Comments
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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