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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Speculators Add to USD long Positions-COT Report Data W/E 06 12 2012
Submitted by Ralph Shell
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8:48 AM Jun 18 2012
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3232 Views |
2 Comments
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 (8 Votes)
Speculators did make some small reductions in their big euro short during the period, taking their short down to a bit under 235K. This is a reduction from 256.4K in the previous week
Despite the euro short reduction, (or USD long liquidation), the total USD long position increased by a modest 11.5K, to a total of 441.7K. The only other significant change in traders positions was in the pound. There traders increased their short positions from 16.9K last week to 38.0K this week. The pound has made some price advances since these positions were initiated so the pound could be vulnerable to some short covering.
The C$ is the only currency we cover here that is short the USD and long the C$. And, the position, long 12.8K is very modest.
We would expect some sizable position changes as the June contract expires.
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US Dollar Index: Large specs increased their net long by reducing short positions in the DI. Large specs are now a 4.6 to 1 ratio long. Small specs, not big players in this market, are 4 to 1 ratio long.
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Euro (EUR/USD): There was a modest reduction in the short euro spec position from 256,470 to 234,826 contracts. The total OI is very large as we approach the last trading day of the June contract. The large specs remain the big short, a 5.7 to 1 ratio. Small specs are a 2.1 ratio short. Spreading is 14.3% of the total contract size.
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British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): The large spec increased his positioning on the short side of the pound, reducing his long by 11.2K and increasing his short by 9.6K. Small specs are also short the pound but did not change their position. Most of the shorts are late arrivals in the pound and might be vulnerable should the pound rally.
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Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): There is little feature in the yen trade. The large spec is long the yen and the small spec is on the short side of the market, where the little spec is a 2 ratio short.
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Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): The SF remains a favorite short for the specs. The large spec is a 7.4 ratio the short, while the small spec is a more modest 3.4 ratio short. The OI is quite large at 93K and will no doubt take a big drop when the June contract expires.
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Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): Trade in the C$ has been subdued. The large spec has a very modest long, while the small spec is about even.
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New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): There was a 20% pick up in the OI of this very small contract. Both spec groups are nominal shorts in the Kiwi.
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Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): The short side of the A$ has become popular with the spec. Large specs are now a 3 to 1 short, and the small specs are a 2 ratio short. There has been a small reduction in the short position during the most recent period.
| Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined, data through June 12, 2012 |
| US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
81,758
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66,686
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13,865
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6,462
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1,459
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7,362
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65,186
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| Change:
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616
|
815
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-5,870
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-545
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-174
|
664
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6,978
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
81.6
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17.0
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7.9
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1.8
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9.0
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79.7
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| Euro (EUR/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
476,459
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41,220
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236,272
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36,950
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76,824
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330,256
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95,330
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| Change:
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-20,864
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3,660
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-14,348
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-4,787
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-8,323
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-22,350
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-807
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| % Open Interest:
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8.7
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49.6
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7.8
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16.1
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69.3
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20.0
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| British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
186,265
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28,280
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51,093
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17,586
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32,840
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134,650
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96,583
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| Change:
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-12,905
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-11,257
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9,614
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-1,851
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-1,587
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3,375
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-17,759
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| % Open Interest:
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15.2
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27.4
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9.4
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17.6
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72.3
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51.9
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| Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
182,816
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38,038
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25,253
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19,604
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37,695
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116,772
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111,466
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| Change:
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-3,062
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875
|
372
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-7,099
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-2,894
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5,086
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1,384
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| % Open Interest:
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20.8
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13.8
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10.7
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20.6
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63.9
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61.0
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| Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
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| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
93,027
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5,220
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38,449
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8,398
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28,229
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60,913
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7,853
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| Change:
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18,723
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-239
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-904
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235
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-495
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1,448
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2,843
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| % Open Interest:
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5.6
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41.3
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9.0
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30.3
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65.5
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8.4
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| Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
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| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
146,423
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30,724
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20,176
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32,948
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30,641
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70,242
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83,096
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| Change:
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-12,685
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-9,387
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-2,777
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-5,499
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-2,118
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-1,428
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-11,418
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| % Open Interest:
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21.0
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13.8
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22.5
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20.9
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48.0
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56.8
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| New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
27,485
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6,640
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10,525
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1,822
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3,468
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18,395
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12,864
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| Change:
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5,955
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65
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-1,580
|
226
|
219
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5,188
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6,840
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| % Open Interest:
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24.2
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38.3
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6.6
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12.6
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66.9
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46.8
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| Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
205,642
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21,112
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66,360
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15,687
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30,267
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151,497
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91,669
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| Change:
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25,162
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9,429
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3,231
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-1,612
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-455
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11,437
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16,479
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| % Open Interest:
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10.3
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32.3
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7.6
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14.7
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73.7
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44.6
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To view the COT report released by the CFTC please see the attached file.
For general information about the COT report please see the article The CFTC Commitment of Trader Report
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Comments
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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