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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Specs Big Buyers in Australian and Canadian Dollars-COT Report 08 21 2012
Submitted by Ralph Shell
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8:57 AM Aug 27 2012
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3172 Views |
0 Comments
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 (8 Votes)
Specs continued to buy the Australian and the Canadian Dollars. The aggressive acquisition of these two currencies, plus to a small extent the NZ$ almost negates the big positions the specs have short the euro and the Swiss Franc.
When all the spec positions, including the long position in the Dollar Index, are combined, the total net USD long is down to only 34,803 contracts. This is the smallest USD long position since the report of Sept 13th, 2011, the first week when specs flipped to the long side of the USD.
We note the large specs in the pound have flipped to the long side. The market has not rewarded them in this trade, to date.
The activity in the Australian Dollar is quite interesting. There has been a sizable build in the open interest as the large players, probably funds, buy the A$. With continued bad economic news coming from China, it is peculiar to such a degree of bullish interest in the Aussie.
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US Dollar Index:There was a slight increase in the open interest (the total number of longs and shorts in the market) but there was little change in net positions. The small spec is a 3.2 ratio long and the large spec is a 4.8 to 1 long.
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Euro (EUR/USD): Specs reduced their net short position in the euro during the period by about 19K contracts. Large specs remain better than a 4 to 1 ratio long, but were responsible for trimming their net short about 13.6K. The small spec remains short but did buy 6K versus the sales of only .6K.
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British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): The large specs and commercials flipped positions during the period. The large specs bought 13.5K contracts and are now on the long side of the pound. Small specs remain net short, but they too were net buyers. The pound broke to the upside on Wednesday 08 22, but since then it has been in retreat.
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Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): There was a reduction in the long side of both size specs. Large specs reduced their longs by 12K and increased their shorts by 6.9K, but the large specs remained long. Small specs, who have been short, remained short, increasing their net short by 8.0K. This spec activity caused the commercial to flip to the long side of the yen. Large specs and small specs continue to disagree on market direction in the yen.
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Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): There was continued liquidation in the spec short positions in the SF. Large specs still, though, remain a 3.6 ratio short.
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Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): The loonie specs aggressively added to their longs. Large specs added 22.5K to their net long taking them past a three ratio long. The small spec added 6.5K to their long and are now about a two ratio long. There has been a very big build in the C$ open interest as we approach expiration in the September contract. We wonder how much of this build is related to exporter pricing.
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New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): Specs continue to make small additions to their long position in the Kiwi. Large specs are a 5.7 ratio long, and the small specs are a 2.4 ratio long. The market seems to be losing the upside momentum.
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Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): The speculative buying in the A$ continues to soar, as the large specs buy some more. The total spec long is now up to 98K contracts. This is the largest spec long in the A$ since the report of July 26, 2011, when the total spec long was 101.6K. The spec buying had run the market up to the all time high above 110. After achieving that high, the A$ reversed, selling all the way down to a spike low of .9389 in early October. It is interesting to note that this time the massive spec buying did not run the market up to a new high.
Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined,
data through August 21, 2012 |
| US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
66,056
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48,144
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10,085
|
5,736
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1,765
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9,885
|
51,916
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| Change:
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2,871
|
1,647
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1,843
|
-193
|
284
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1,101
|
429
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| % Open Interest:
|
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72.9
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15.3
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8.7
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2.7
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15.0
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78.6
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| Euro (EUR/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
369,103
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44,079
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169,896
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44,934
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71,289
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247,800
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95,628
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| Change:
|
992
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2,374
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-11,441
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6,007
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632
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-6,979
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12,210
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| % Open Interest:
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11.9
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46.0
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12.2
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19.3
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67.1
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25.9
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| British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
124,858
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45,155
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37,950
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26,478
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29,874
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50,136
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53,946
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| Change:
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5,389
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13,575
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5,590
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4,999
|
-435
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-13,224
|
194
|
| % Open Interest:
|
|
36.2
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30.4
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21.2
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23.9
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40.2
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43.2
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| Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
152,054
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44,118
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31,274
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20,717
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44,275
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81,571
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70,856
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| Change:
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-8,324
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-12,068
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6,910
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-5,314
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2,716
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7,607
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-19,401
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
29.0
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20.6
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13.6
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29.1
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53.6
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46.6
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| Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
55,830
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5,921
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21,583
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12,375
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21,825
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37,266
|
12,154
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| Change:
|
-2,035
|
-219
|
-3,411
|
2,679
|
1,517
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-4,762
|
-408
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
10.6
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38.7
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22.2
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39.1
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66.8
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21.8
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| Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
165,263
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75,854
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24,050
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47,015
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24,411
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35,454
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109,862
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| Change:
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29,045
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22,157
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-333
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5,872
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-763
|
363
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29,489
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
45.9
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14.6
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28.4
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14.8
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21.5
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66.5
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| New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
31,984
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19,835
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3,463
|
4,429
|
1,870
|
7,596
|
26,527
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| Change:
|
1,884
|
1,562
|
437
|
208
|
128
|
114
|
1,319
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
62.0
|
10.8
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13.8
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5.8
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23.7
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82.9
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| Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
209,343
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127,206
|
40,145
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34,600
|
23,583
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41,855
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139,933
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| Change:
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21,294
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17,628
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-3,150
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1,365
|
-693
|
1,394
|
24,230
|
| % Open Interest:
|
|
60.8
|
19.2
|
16.5
|
11.3
|
20.0
|
66.8
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Click to view the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 21 August 2012.
For general information about the COT report please see the article The CFTC Commitments of Traders Report.
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Comments
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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