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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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Speculators Short USD Position Up Again-COT Report 09 25 2012
Submitted by Ralph Shell
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8:33 十月 01 2012
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2669 Views |
0 Comments
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 (6 Votes)
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Once again the speculators combined net short position in the USD climbed higher. It is now up to 267,878 total contracts in the currencies and the DI tabulated below. The only remaining USD long position was versus the euro. There remains short euro positions of 66,908 contracts against a long USD but this is down almost 200K contracts from the high short position.
Currency specs added to their long commodity currency positions. They are now long a total of 263,140 contracts of the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollar. This was up from 239,375 contracts in the prior week.
In recent weeks, the British Pound has become another favorite of the specs. Going back to the COT report from August 14th, specs were short 9,608 contracts of the Pound. They have since reversed their position and are now up to a long of over 52K contracts. During this period there has been a big interest in the total open interest, and it has continued to climb after the cut off date of the latest report.
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US Dollar Index: The DI is a market that has been dominated by the large trader and hedge fund operators. In the latest report, they flipped to the short side of the market. Only a month ago the specs were long over 42K contracts, and they are now short 4.2K. This is the first time specs have been short the DI contracts since the report of August 30th, 2011.
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Euro (EUR/USD): Speculators continue to liquidate their short positions in the euro, this week taking it 28K contracts lower. While the small spec is short only 9K contracts, the large spec remains a 2 to 1 short. The total short in the euro is down to 66.9K contracts. Spreading is quite large, 11.0 of the total open interest reflecting a very active option trade.
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British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): The OI was up by 11% as the specs continued to add to their long in the pound. The total spec long is up over 52K contracts, with the small specs better than a 2 ratio long. Spreading is very light, indicative of small interest in pound options.
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Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): The disagreement between the large and small specs in the yen continues. Large specs are long the yen by about 21K contracts and the small specs are short by about 11K. With the yen meandering sideways within a fairly narrow range, there are so far no winners in this one.
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Swiss Franc (CHF/USD):Small specs are now short the SF while the large specs remain a minor short. This means the total spec position combined net position is now 4.4K contracts long. As a consequence of the net position by the large specs approaching even as they reduced their shorts, the commercial flipped to the short side of the SF.
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Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): The specs affection for the long side of the C$ continues. Small specs are a 2.5 ratio long, and the large specs are a 7.5 ratio long. The total long spec position in the C$ is 137,730 contracts.
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New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): Specs continue to buy the kiwi, resulting in a 10% increase in the open interest for the week. Large specs are a 6.85 to 1 long, and the small specs are a 3 ratio long. The spec long position is 87.4% of the OI and their short are only 15.8%.
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Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): The large specs in the A$ covered 18.1K contracts of their shorts which took their net long up to almost 90K and a 4.4 ratio longs to shorts. Small specs are only modest longs, but the two combined groups were just short of 102K long.
Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined,
data through September 25, 2012 |
| US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
48,784
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30,641
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34,984
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3,051
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2,915
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12,723
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8,516
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| Change:
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7,606
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2,242
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11,194
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-150
|
180
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5,139
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-4,143
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| % Open Interest:
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62.8
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71.7
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6.3
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6.0
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26.1
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17.5
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| Euro (EUR/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
271,670
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51,506
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106,802
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48,029
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59,642
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142,329
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75,421
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| Change:
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-14,710
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4,614
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-17,761
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728
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-4,909
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-20,891
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7,120
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| % Open Interest:
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19.0
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39.3
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17.7
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22.0
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52.4
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27.8
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| British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
183,172
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60,387
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33,534
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44,279
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18,798
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73,139
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125,474
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| Change:
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21,273
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8,165
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-4,770
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2,814
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-990
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10,339
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27,078
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| % Open Interest:
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33.0
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18.3
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24.2
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10.3
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39.9
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68.5
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| Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
149,641
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46,848
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24,940
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27,058
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38,305
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70,238
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80,899
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| Change:
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9,111
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5,053
|
429
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2,410
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2,665
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2,670
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7,038
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| % Open Interest:
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31.3
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16.7
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18.1
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25.6
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46.9
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54.1
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| Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
38,781
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13,567
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14,419
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16,131
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10,836
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8,855
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13,298
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| Change:
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-873
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-59
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-3,734
|
656
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-1,927
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-1,698
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4,560
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| % Open Interest:
|
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35.0
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37.2
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41.6
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27.9
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22.8
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34.3
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| Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
223,820
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123,578
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16,389
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50,528
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19,988
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42,737
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180,467
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| Change:
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-87,056
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-2,846
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3,593
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917
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-3,919
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-75,024
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-76,627
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| % Open Interest:
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55.2
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7.3
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22.6
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8.9
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19.1
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80.6
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| New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
32,787
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23,389
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3,424
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5,295
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1,722
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3,973
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27,511
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| Change:
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3,456
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2,987
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-373
|
562
|
12
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-94
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3,816
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| % Open Interest:
|
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71.3
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10.4
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16.1
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5.3
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12.1
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83.9
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| Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
194,399
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118,606
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28,668
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36,212
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24,278
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31,201
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133,073
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| Change:
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5,005
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2,083
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-18,139
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2,565
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1,329
|
21
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21,479
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
61.0
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14.7
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18.6
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12.5
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16.1
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68.5
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To view the Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the CFTC please see the attached files.
For general information about the COT report please see the article The CFTC Commitment of Trader Report
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Comments
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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