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CashBackForex - Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!
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USD Net Short Position Climbs to 109K-COT Report 12 11 2102
Submitted by Ralph Shell
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6:50 AM Dec 17 2012
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1477 Views |
2 Comments
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 (9 Votes)
The net spec short position in the USD grew this past week from 68K contracts to 109K contracts. While the aggregate net position is USD short, the specs do have a very big position short the yen and long the USD. The position in the yen is short over 104K contracts.
Specs remain short the euro versus a long USD but this position has been reduced to only 36K. Four weeks ago the specs were short 114K.
Currencies from commodity -producing countries remain exceptionally popular. Speculators believe the increased money supply from various monetary stimulus plans will inflate commodity prices. Since commodities are produced in Australia, Canada and New Zealand, those currencies are in demand.
The total of long positions held by specs in these three commodities now tallies 133.3K contracts. Some of this is probably inflated as specs may be buying replacement contracts to replace the December contracts that are about to expire.
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US Dollar Index: The open interest (OI) went up about 10% as the large specs added to both long and short positions. The total spec long was reduced by a little less than 700 contracts.
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Euro (EUR/USD): The reduction in the euro OI was the result of option expiration with spreading down 12,545 contracts, more than the total OI decline of 8622 contracts. Speculators again reduced their short euro positions and are now down to 36K contracts from 51.6 in the prior week. There was probably more short covering toward the end of last week, after the cut off date for this report. Small specs are close to flipping to the long side of the market.
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British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): Specs continue to trade the long side of the pound. The small spec is a 2-ratio long and the large spec is long, but a smaller ratio. The market, today climbing above the 1.62 handle, has worked in the specs favor.
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Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): The OI in the yen continued to surge, up 37.3K contracts , taking the total to 288.8K contracts. The increase was caused by commercials adding to both long and short positions. The yen has been very weak anticipating the political change from this past week ends election. The total spec short position remained about the same, a very large 140.1K.
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Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): Specs continue to be long the SF with a total net long of over 10.4K. Small specs carry a bigger net position in the Swissie than the large specs. Perhaps that is because the Swiss National Bank continues to peg the SF to the price of the euro, and the large hedge funds do not wish to fade the SNB.
- Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): Both the large and the small specs made modest additions to their long positions. The large spec is now a 6.3 ratio long and the small spec is a 2.2 long. The total spec long position in the C$ is up to 86.1K contracts.
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New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): The OI continues to spike up but some of this might be buying in anticipation of replacing longs once the December contract expires. Large specs are a 6-ratio long and the small spec are about a 3-to-1 long. Markets have rewarded the longs as commodity currencies remain in vogue.
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Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): Specs continue to accumulate a long position in the A$. Large specs now have over a 104K contract long position. They are a 4-ratio long. Small specs are likewise long but only modestly. The total long A$ position is up to 188.5K contracts. With expiration of the December contract this week, it will be interesting to see how much will be liquidated.
Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined,
data through December 11, 2012 |
| US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
49,362
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35,616
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28,973
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2,870
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1,817
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7,623
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15,319
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| Change:
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4,901
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4,404
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6,110
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-339
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-1,372
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2,284
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1,611
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
72.2
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58.7
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5.8
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3.7
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15.4
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31.0
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| Euro (EUR/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
271,500
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50,853
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81,823
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50,704
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55,781
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143,702
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107,656
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| Change:
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-8,622
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7,636
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-1,206
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-662
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-7,421
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-3,050
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12,551
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| % Open Interest:
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18.7
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30.1
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18.7
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20.5
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52.9
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39.7
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| British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
190,404
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64,230
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36,630
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42,215
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20,720
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79,440
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128,535
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| Change:
|
373
|
-759
|
-686
|
-172
|
1,951
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3,302
|
1,106
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
33.7
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19.2
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22.2
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10.9
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41.7
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67.5
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| Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
288,842
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15,251
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110,310
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19,098
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64,143
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231,873
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91,769
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| Change:
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37,297
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-3,756
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1,907
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1,250
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-5,256
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37,654
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38,497
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| % Open Interest:
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5.3
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38.2
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6.6
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22.2
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80.3
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31.8
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| Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
49,790
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11,141
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8,146
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17,237
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9,754
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17,126
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27,603
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| Change:
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3,527
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-581
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-2,940
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-2,612
|
-677
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2,460
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2,883
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| % Open Interest:
|
|
22.4
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16.4
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34.6
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19.6
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34.4
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55.4
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| Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
|
| Contracts: |
185,387
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73,526
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11,621
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44,698
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20,411
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61,531
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147,722
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| Change:
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2,878
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8,507
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3,579
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2,160
|
158
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-4,652
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2,278
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| % Open Interest:
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39.7
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6.3
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24.1
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11.0
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33.2
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79.7
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| New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
41,381
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29,560
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4,960
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6,225
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2,234
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2,845
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31,436
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| Change:
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9,214
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6,288
|
2,776
|
1,517
|
-108
|
-926
|
4,211
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| % Open Interest:
|
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71.4
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12.0
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15.0
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5.4
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6.9
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76.0
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| Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) |
| |
|
(1) Large Traders |
(2) Small Traders |
(3) Commercial
|
| |
Open Interest
|
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short |
Long |
Short
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| Contracts: |
238,891
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139,707
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35,622
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40,384
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26,004
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49,405
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167,871
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| Change:
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12,471
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4,173
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-7,370
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1,015
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-1,014
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6,395
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19,966
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| % Open Interest:
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|
58.5
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14.9
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16.9
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10.9
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20.7
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70.3
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To view the COT report released by the CFTC please see the attached file.
For general information about the COT report please see the article The CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
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Comments
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Shortcuts and Syndication
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Author Bios
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Ralph Shell: Ralph did his graduate studies in economics and history at Duke University. He has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets and is a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. He was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years.
Forex Captain: The Forex Captain has been a strategy developer and forex trader since 1998. From 2002 till 2009 he ran a successful managed account based on his tradestation coded strategies at FXCM. In 2007 his managed fund was ranked in BarclayHedge Rankings as one of the Top 10 Currency Traders managing less than $10M & more than $1M. Since 2009 he has been developing Expert Advisors in MQL4 for private trading, and from June 2010 he has joined the Project Triumph team as a currency analyst and project manager.
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