Since the beginning of April, the EURUSD has repeatedly challenged the overhead
resistance at about 1.1420 and failed. Today the best the pair could muster was a move to 1.1397, before backing off. Trade is now slightly less than 1.1290. It appears there is support in the 1.1170 to 1.1240 area.
The
trend less EURUSD market has resulted in a terminated relationship with
hedge fund managers. Trending markets are the attractions for the super big trader, who hope to catch a trend which will last for months. Currently expert opinions in the EUR are divided. I note some think the EURUSD may
rally to 1.15/.16 in the current quarter but then they anticipate a return to 1.10 by year end. How does a big trader
position for this?
The possibility of a global recession exists, but it seems many of the experts seem to be hoping it goes away if they do not mention the R word. Further, do the global central bankers have any weapons left to fight a recession? After the massive increase in the money supply and zero bank rates, all that may be left is guile and bluster.
I personally doubt the Fed will raise rates, regardless of the economic data until after the election. Though the Fed is supposedly neutral, 80% of the currently Feds governors has gone to the democrat party. A weaker USD would be expected to weaken the USD, and perhaps help the domestic economy. It is my inclination to buy the EURUSD around the 1.12 area with an appropriate money management
stop.