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Forums > Commercial Zone > Third Party Market Analytics > Amega - Daily Technical Analysis
Messages (69 Replies)
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25 Apr 2018 10:21 AM
Review NZD/USD 25.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: for the third week in a row for the New Zealand dollar becomes bearish, the price powerfully and practically without kickbacks goes down from the top near 0.73958. Today in New Zealand Bank holiday, in connection with the celebration of ANZAC Day (national holiday of Australia and New Zealand), because extreme volatility is not expected..

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend since 2009. The medium - term trend is also bullish, starting in November 2017 from 0.67779, it has not turned around yet. Let's pay attention to an important psychological moment, just on two charts – H4 and H1 – the price somehow rests on the bottom of the screen, it seems (but is not) too low, provoking inexperienced traders to play against the trend. In this situation, each bullish candle (on M15 or M30) can be taken for the beginning of a reversal – but we advise you not to hurry. The search for the "bottom" often ends in failure.



Trading recommendations: while the priority of short positions, follow the trend, consider the possibility of sales below 0.70000. Cancel this scenario and the transition to the long positions after the breakdown of the two-day minimum on 0.72090.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA
Edited:25 Apr 2018 10:24 AM
27 Apr 2018 11:44 AM

Review USD/JPY 27.04.2018


Fundamental analysis:
for more than a month, since March 23, there is a short-term bullish trend, moving up from the "bottom" in the area of 104.626. Today from news on Japan – BoJ Interest Rate Decision and BoJ Press Conference. Important news for the USA: Gross Domestic Product Annualized, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.


Technical analysis:
long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded.  Since November 2017 yen in the medium-term bearish trend. In the H4 chart, we note that the bullish trend is supported by volumes, the «Alligator» has opened its fall upwards.


Trading recommendations:
at H1 chart, «Аlligator» is the second day of the "buried past", it is a signal to lock in profits. Special attention is paid to the resistance level of 109.500 and to the news, which is abundant today. With a reliable downward movement below the two - day low of 108.814-the transition to short positions.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

01 May 2018 7:01 AM

Review USD/CAD 1.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: the sixth day in a row USDCAD is trading in a narrow price corridor 1.28000-1.29000, so happens before powerful price movements. We do not forget about the medium-term bullish trend that began in September 2017. Today from news on the Canadian dollarBoC Governor Poloz Speech.


Technical analysis:
USDCAD has tried twice unsuccessfully to break the resistance level at 1.2900 over the past week. H4 chart shows «Аlligator» closed its mouth, besides bullish trend is no longer supported by volumes.



Trading recommendations: long – term bullish trend since 2011, and the price movement coincides with the strategic trend-the most reliable. However, there are some signs of a possible reversal of the short-term bullish trend. Long positions - above 1.29000, short positions-when breaking the two-day low at 1.28032.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

01 May 2018 10:13 AM

A comprehensive overview USDJPY 30.04.2018 for 04.05.2018

This comprehensive weekly review will address the main fundamental and technical factors affecting the USDJPY rate as well as trade recommendations.

The previous week, from 23 to 27 April, was bullish for the Japanese yen as a whole. Most of the time the trade was in a narrow price range from 109,000 to 109.500:

Note also that on the H1 chart the indicator "Alligator" for the third day in a row, "closed jaw", in such cases it is recommended to take profits and be ready for a trend change.


Technical analysis

Long-term trend of USDJPY is bullish in 2012. Medium-term bearish trend, the price from March 10 goes down from the top 115.517. The short-term trend, as we have already noted, is also bullish, so consider this forecast as the most likely. Coincidence of long-term and short-term trends is a good trading signal.


Option # 1 – the continuation of the bullish trend

On the H4 chart, the «Alligator» that has opened its mouth upwards is clearly visible:

We should also note the psychological moment-now many traders, after such a powerful and long price movement up, instinctively begin to look for the top in the area of the resistance level 109.500. In addition, the price seems to rest on the top edge of the screen, it seems (but is not) too high. In such a situation, you want to play down on the rollback, and it often turns out to be a trap.


Option # 2-reversal of bearish trend

Do not forget that the medium-term trend is still bearish. So, you need to be ready for a sharp change of trend. This scenario is considered when fixing the price below 108.500. The daily chart clearly shows that most recently (in March) the yen was trading around 104.595 – we will not ignore it.

Option # 3 - flat

Do not exclude this option, if confirming each other trading signals to buy (sell) will not – remain out of the market. A new fed rate will be announced during the week, as a rule, this event is accompanied by extreme volatility. Therefore, the flat is unlikely.


Fundamental analysis

Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:


Monday 30 April

  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (USA)

Wednesday 2 May

Thursday 3 May

  • Trade Balance (USA)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USA)

Friday 4 May

  • Average Hourly Earnings (USA)
  • Nonfarm Payrolls (USA)
  • FOMC Member John C.  Williams speech


Before the news – be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Edited:01 May 2018 10:13 AM
02 May 2018 10:21 AM

Review GBP/USD 2.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: starting from April 17 GBPUSD is in a strong bearish trend, from the level of 1.43774 the price fell down by almost 8 000 ticks (such trading opportunities happen not every month). Traders who have short positions and have been able to follow the trend - for the last two weeks have made excellent money. Our forecasts for the trend reversal were justified. From important news on the US today: the ADP Employment Change, and most importantly - the Fed Interest Rate Decision. You can confidently predict good volatility, and hence the possibility of a good profit.

Technical analysis: long – term bearish trend lasts from 2008, perhaps the closest historical minimum of 2016 – 1.13772 mark-the price passed, if it did not notice. This indicates the strength of the trend. On the H4 chart, the «Alligator» perfectly «opened the fall» downwards, and the price "rests" on the bottom of the screen. This is a vivid example of market psychology (the expression of which are the graphics) – now I want to find the "bottom" in the area of 1.36000 and play up the rollback – and it can be a trap.



Trading recommendations: follow the bearish trend. When the price moves below 1.36000-sales, above the two - day high of 1.37938-purchases. Be prepared for extreme volatility: observe risk management, protect profitable orders with stop-loss.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA


03 May 2018 9:40 AM

Review USD/CHF 3.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: medium-term trend - the third month in a row bullish, February 16 USDCHF pushed away from the" bottom " in the area of 0.91851 and confidently goes up. It speaks to the strength of the trend, now the Swiss franc on par with the us dollar (exchange rate of about 1.00000) and has reached the highs from October 2017. From important news on Switzerland today – speech of the head of the national Bank of Switzerland Jordan. In the United States - trade balance and initial claims for unemployment benefits.


Technical analysis:
long-term trend-bearish since 2000, 18 years. Perhaps now we are seeing a slow reversal, since 2011 the pair is trading in a relatively narrow (for MN chart) price range from 0.70444 to 1.03458. Note also that the chart D1 indicator "Аlligator" confidently "opened the fall" up, the price rebounded from the resistance level 1.00000. In such a situation, psychologically more comfortable to play down the rollback, and it often turns out to be a trap – "top" may be false.


Trading recommendations:
we follow the bullish trend-long positions in priority, when the price moves above 1.00000. Cancel this script and switching to short positions when the authentic two-day break of at least 0.98913.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

04 May 2018 8:54 AM

Review GBP/JPY 4.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: this week for GBPJPY as a whole bearish, the price has dropped and is now trading around 147.500-this is the level of March this year. From the news on the Eurozone today we will pay attention to the Markit Services PMI.

Technical analysis: the long-term bearish trend that began in the summer of 2007 has not yet unfolded. H4 chart shows a short-term bearish trend, the jaws of the "Alligator" are opened downwards. Volumes generally support the price.



Trading recommendations: follow the trend, bearish, in our case. Short positions-below 147.500 long positions-with a break of two days maximum at 150.133.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

07 May 2018 8:35 AM

Review EUR/USD 7.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: EURUSD has been in a pronounced bearish trend for the last three weeks, the price is going downwards powerfully, the price is now at the January lows. Today, important news on the US – speeches by FED officials of Bostich and Kaplan.


Technical analysis:
long - term trend-bearish since 2008. The “Alligator” indicator on the H4 chart "opened its fall" downwards. Volumes support the price, which indicates the truth of the trend. "The trend will continue rather than change direction" - we count on this reasonable statement.


Trading recommendations:
medium term (February 2018) the trend is reversed. In trading, often the most favorable time for active actions is the time when the price seems (but is not) too low or too high. In such situations, the majority begins to look for the "bottom" or "top" - and often are deceived in their expectations. Markets tend to go to the limit. Short positions below 1.19200, cancel this script and switching to long positions above the two day high at 1.20094.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source:Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA


10 May 2018 9:23 AM

Review GBPUSD 10.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: starting from May 3, GBPUSD is trading in a narrow price range from 1.35000 to 1.36000. In General, the bearish trend (the level of 1.43774 the price has gone down by almost 8 000 ticks) is stored. Today in England, a whole package of important news: the planned volume of purchases of assets by the Bank of England, the Bank of England's decision on interest rates, the report on monetary policy and the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney.

 

Technical analysis: long – term bearish trend lasts from 2008, perhaps the closest historical minimum of 2016 – 1.13772 mark-the price passed, if it did not notice. This indicates the strength of the trend. However, on the H1 chart, the whole current week "Alligator" with closed jaws. This happens before the powerful price movements.



Trading recommendations: follow the bearish trend. When the price moves below the same price at 1.35000 - sale, above the two day high of 1.36080 purchase.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source:Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

11 May 2018 9:34 AM

Review EUR/JPY 11.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: on April 24, EURJPY goes down: there was a short-term trend reversal, from bullish to bearish. It should be noted that for more than a year, since April 17, 2017, the medium-term bullish trend. From important news on the European Union today - ECB President Draghi's Speech.


Technical analysis:
long-term bullish trend since 2012. The price rebounded, almost reaching the resistance level of 129.000. On the H4 chart we see the closed fall of the "Alligator", this is a recommendation for fixing profits in anticipation of a possible trend reversal.

 



Trading recommendations: long positions at a reliable level breakdown 130.500, short positions – after hitting three-day low on 129.242.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source:Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

14 May 2018 10:32 AM

Review EUR/USD 14.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: the third day in a row, EURUSD breaks daily highs. Obviously, after almost a month of pronounced bearish trend, which returned prices to the level of December 2017, there was a correction. Today's FOMC Member Loretta J. Mester  speech, pushed prices upwards. Then, during the day, we expect the ECB representatives, who are also able to influence the price.

Technical analysis: long - term trend-bearish since 2008. The «Alligator» indicator on H1 chart opened its fall upwards, but the volumes do not support the price – a reversal is possible.



Trading recommendations: medium term (February 2018), the bullish trend significantly reversed, it is likely that we are dealing with correction. Therefore, the priority is to continue the bearish trend. Short positions below 1.19500, cancel this script and switching to long positions above 1.20000.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

15 May 2018 9:55 AM

Review GBP/USD 15.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: starting from May 3, GBPUSD is trading in a narrow price range from 1.35000 to 1.36000, with short-term false breakouts. Bearish trend continues for the last month. Today from the important news from England: average wages excluding bonuses, average wages including bonuses. From the US – data on retail sales and the speech of the representative of the FED Williams.

Technical analysis: the long-term bearish trend has been going on since 2008. An interesting technical picture is formed on the H1 chart: for the second week "Alligator" with closed jaws. This happens before the powerful price movements.

 



Trading recommendations: follow bearish trend to its reliable reversal. When the price moves below 1.35000-sales, above the three - day high of 1.36182-purchase.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source:Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

15 May 2018 10:25 AM

Comprehensive overview of AUD/USD with 14.05.2018 for 18.05.2018

This weekly review will examine the main fundamental and technical factors affecting the AUDUSD exchange rate and provide brief trade recommendations.

In the previous week, from 7 to 11 may, AUDUSD traded mixed, short-term bearish trend was replaced by bullish:



On the H1 chart, the alligator indicator closed its jaws, in such cases it is recommended to fix the profit and prepare for a trend change.

Technical analysis

Long-term trend for AUDUSD since 2011 - bearish, prices move down from the top 1.10869. Medium - term trend-bullish, since 2016 the price goes up from 0.68121. After a false breakout of the support level at 0.74500, the price goes up.

Option # 1 – the continuation of the bullish trend

Short-term bullish trend, confirmation-on the H4 chart the fall of the "Alligator" is opened up:



After a long enough strengthening of the US dollar, now there is a correction. Time will tell how long it will last.

Option # 2-bearish trend

Do not forget that for four months in a row the price updates monthly lows, stopping at 0.74084:



"The trend is likely to continue, than reverse direction," - that you should always remember watching the kickbacks.

Option # 3-flat

We do not exclude this option, if there are no trade signals confirming each other for the purchase (sale) – we will remain out of the market.

Fundamental analysis

Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

Monday 14 May

  • FOMC Member Mester speech

Tuesday 15 May

  • RBA Meeting's Minutes
  • FOMC Members Kaplan and Williams Speech
  • Retail Sales ex Autos (USA)
  • Retail Sales control group (USA)
  • Retail Sales (USA)

Wednesday 16 May

  • Building Permits (USA)
  • Building Permits Change (USA)
  • FOMC Member Bostic speech

Thursday 17 May

  • Unemployment Rate s.a. (Australia)
  • Employment Change s.a. (Australia)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
  • FOMC Members Kaplan and Kashkari Speech

Friday 18 May

  • FOMC Members Mester, Kaplan, and Brainard Speech

Before the news – be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

16 May 2018 7:46 AM

Review USD/JPY 16.05.2018


Fundamental analysis:
this week, a powerful bullish trend USD/JPY, which started at the end of March, in General, continued to break through the daily highs. Resistance level 110.000 broken. From the news on the US today, we will pay attention to the Building Permits, Building Permits Change and FOMC Member Bostic speech.


Technical analysis:
long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded.  Since November 2017, the yen has been in the medium-term bearish trend, and it is not clear whether the short – term bullish trend that began on March 26 is a correction or a reversal. On two charts - H4 and D 1 - the alligator's jaws are open up, confirming the bullish trend.


Trading recommendations:
long positions at a reliable level breakdown of 110.500. When moving down below the two - day low by 109.201- short positions.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source:Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

17 May 2018 9:07 AM

Review AUD/USD  17.05.2018


Fundamental analysis:
the Australian dollar since January this year is in a bearish trend, the price consistently updates monthly lows for the fourth month in a row. Among the important news in Australia today - the unemployment rate and employment rate$ in the United States - the initial applications for unemployment benefits and speeches of FED Kaplan and Kashkari.


Technical analysis:
the long-term trend since 2011 is bearish. On the D1 chart, the «Alligator» confidently opened its fall down. However, on H1 the technical picture is somewhat different, AUDUSD is trading in a rather narrow price range from 0.74500 to 0.75500, with numerous false breakouts – near these levels require increased attention.


Trading recommendations:
the priority is to continue the bearish trend, short positions are considered when the price moves below 0.74500. Cancel this scenario, move to long positions when the two-day high breaks by 0.75649.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source:Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

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