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Forums > Commercial Zone > Third Party Market Analytics > Amega - Daily Technical Analysis
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21 May 2018 8:19 AM

Review EURUSD 21.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: the last two months for EURUSD can be called "bear Eldorado", such pronounced trends, almost without kickbacks, are not often. Prices are now at semi-annual lows, level-November-December 2017. From the news on the US today-the speech of FED representatives Bostich and Harker.


Technical analysis:
the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. On three charts-H1, H4 and D1 – the Alligator's mouth is opened downwards. In addition, fractals are below the red line – this is a confirmation signal to sell.


Trading recommendations:
the medium-term bullish (since February 2018) trend has obviously turned around, so we are dealing with a rare and strong trading signal – the coincidence of three trends (short-term, medium-term and long-term). Priority to continue the bear market. Short positions-below 1.17200, cancellation of this scenario and transition to long positions - above the two-day high of 1.18380.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

22 May 2018 10:51 AM

Review GBP/USD 22.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: bearish trend for GBPUSD continues, prices broke out of the narrow price range 1.35000 - 1.36000, and again went down. The short-term trend is bearish since April 17. Today from important news on England: speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney and hearing the inflation report.


Technical analysis:
the long-term bearish trend has been lasting since 2008. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, in addition, three lower fractals in a row are located below the red line – this is confirmed by a bearish trend.

 



Trading recommendations: follow the bear trend. When the price moves below yesterday's low of 1.33903 - sales, above the two-day high of 1.35279 - purchase.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

23 May 2018 9:57 AM

Review AUD/USD 23.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: after a short-term bullish trend in the last three weeks, the Australian dollar seems to be returning to the medium-term bearish trend. Among the important news about Australia today - RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speech, the US - the New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes and FOMC Member Kashkari Speech.


Technical analysis:
the long-term trend since 2011 is bearish. On the D1 chart fractals are below the red line "Alligator" - a signal for sales. Confirmation of this is found on H1, the fall of the "Alligator" is revealed down, the price bounced off the resistance level 0.76000 and goes down.



Trading recommendations: the priority is to continue the bearish trend. Cancel this scenario, move to long positions when the two-day high breaks by 0.76047.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

24 May 2018 10:40 AM

Review EUR/JPY 24.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: currently, EURJPY is in a short-term bearish trend. We should also note that for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium-term trend is also bullish, and it has not yet turned around. Important news on the EU today - information about the ECB meeting on monetary policy.


Technical analysis:
the long-term trend is bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, we see the fall of the "Alligator" is open down, we also pay attention to the sharp angle of the trend line – the price goes down almost steeply – this is an indicator of the strength of the bearish trend. On the H1 chart, both bullish and bearish fractals are below the red line-this is also a signal for sales.


Trading recommendations:
we follow the bearish trend, not forgetting that it can turn around at any time, the medium-term and short-term trend is still bullish. Long positions above the two-day high fixation rates by level 131.342.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

25 May 2018 9:45 AM

Review USDCAD 25.05.2018


Fundamental analysis:
USD/CAD has been in a short-term bullish trend for more than a month (since April 17). The medium-term trend, which began in September 2017, is also bullish. Today, the important news of the United States – Durable Goods Orders, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Fed's Powell Speech.


Technical analysis:
on the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, in addition, the last four fractals (two bullish and two bearish) are above the red line – this is a signal to buy.


Trading recommendations:
the priority is to continue the bullish trend, long positions - when the price moves above 1.29500, short positions below the two-day low at 1.28109.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source:Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

29 May 2018 6:31 AM

Review GBPJPY 29.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: markets tend to move to the limit, and confirmation of this – a powerful short-term bearish trend GBPJPY. Over the past week, the price fell to March lows.  There are no important economic news today.

 

Technical analysis: the long-term bearish trend that began in summer 2007 has not yet turned around reliably. The medium-term trend is bullish since August 2017. Let's pay attention to the chart D1 - the fall of the "Alligator" is well opened down, and prices go down almost steeply, at an acute angle – this is an indicator of the strength of the trend. As a rule, such trends do not unfold quickly.

 

Trading recommendations: we need a profit - follow the bearish trend. The cancellation of this option and the transition to long positions – with a reliable breakdown of the two-day high at 146.575.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source:Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

30 May 2018 4:56 AM

A comprehensive overview USD/JPY 28.05.2018 by 01.06.2018

In our comprehensive weekly review, we will discuss the main fundamental and technical factors affecting the USDJPY rate, as well as trading recommendations.

The previous week, from 21 to 25 May, for the Japanese yen as a whole was bearish:

Note also that on the H1 chart, the Alligator indicator closed its jaws for the second day in a row, and fractals are both above and below the red line, in a narrow price range of 109.000 – 110.000.


Technical analysis

Long-term USDJPY trend is bullish since 2012. The medium-term trend is also bullish, the price has been going up since March 26. The short-term trend, as we have already noted, is bearish, because it is likely that we are dealing with corrections.


Option № 1 - continuation of the bullish trend

The D1 chart shows the Alligator "opening its mouth" up (although the green line touched the red one), in addition, most fractals are located above the red line – this is a bullish signal:


Option № 2 - turn to bearish trend

Do not forget that the short-term trend is bearish, and it can last long enough. In recent months, most currency pairs have experienced high volatility (monthly or even annual highs and lows are updated sometimes several times a day) – and this is a great opportunity to earn money. This scenario is considered when fixing the price below 109.000. On the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is opened downwards-let's not ignore this bearish signal.


Option № 3 - flat

We do not rule out this option, if the trade signals confirming each other for buying (selling) will not be – it is better to stay out of the market. Market opportunities will not be long in coming.


Fundamental analysis

Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:


Wednesday 30
May

  • ADP Employment Change (USA)
  • Gross Domestic Product Annualized (USA)
  • Goods Trade Balance (USA)
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (USA)

Thursday 31 May

  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (USA)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
  • FOMC Members Bostic and Brainard speech

Friday 1 June

  • Nonfarm Payrolls (USA)
  • Average Hourly Earnings (USA)
  • FOMC Members Kaplan and Kashkari speech

Before the news-be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

30 May 2018 7:34 AM

Review USD/CHF 30.05.2018


Fundamental analysis:
having recently equaled the price with the US dollar, the Swiss franc has recently slightly lost ground, falling below 1.00000. The medium-term trend is the fourth consecutive month bullish, since February 16, the USDCHF has pushed off the "bottom" in the area of 0.91851 and is going up powerfully. Today, a package of important news on the US – the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Goods Trade Balance, Gross Domestic Product Annualized, ADP Employment Change. In addition, the SNB Chairman Jordan speech.


Technical analysis:
the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Pay attention to the psychologically important point: on the H4 and D1 charts, the price "rests" on the upper edge of the screen, near the level with "round figures" - 1.00000. The crowd in the financial markets acts most often intuitively, and in such a situation it is psychologically more comfortable to play for a decrease, the price seems to "ask" down. This may be a trap, but the bullish trend has not yet turned around.


Trading recommendations:
the trend will continue rather than unfold, so we follow the bullish trend. Long positions above the two-day high of 0.99829. Short positions-below 0.98959.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

Edited:30 May 2018 7:35 AM
31 May 2018 6:29 AM

Review EUR/JPY 31.05.2018

Fundamental analysis: EUR/JPY is now in a short-term bearish trend. It should be noted that for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium-term trend is bullish, and it has not yet turned around reliably. The consumer price index is one of the most important news on the European Union today.


Technical analysis
: the long-term trend is bullish since 2012. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, we should also pay attention to the sharp angle of the trend line – the price goes down almost steeply – this is an indicator of the bearish trend's strength. Both bullish and bearish fractals are below the red line-this is also a signal for sales.


Trading recommendations
: we follow the bearish trend, not forgetting that it can turn around at any time, the medium-term and short-term trend is still bullish. Short positions - below 125.000, long positions - when securing the price above 128.500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

01 Jun 2018 8:08 AM

Review GBP/USD 01.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the short-term bearish trend for the British pound has been going on for a month and a half, and there are no signs of a reversal. Today, the important news in the US - the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, the average hourly wage and the speech of the representative of the FED Kashkari.

Technical analysis: the long-term bearish trend has been lasting since 2008. Let's pay attention to the chart D1: the mouth of the "Alligator" is open downwards; both bullish and bearish fractals are located below the red line; in addition, a classical figure of the trend reversal "Head and shoulders" was drawn. This technical picture is visible to most traders, and the obvious factors for the crowd - the market often become self-destructive. There is a high probability of a sharp change in the short-term trend.



Trading recommendations: while we follow the bear trend. Sales - below 1.32500, buy - above the two-day high of 1.3333500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

04 Jun 2018 10:02 AM

Review EUR/USD 04.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: last week, the Euro was trading in different directions, slightly slowing down after two consecutive bearish months. In total, during this time the rate fell by 10%, usually such indicators are typical for the data for the year. Today's economic news - the change in the number of unemployed in Spain – did not have a significant impact on the price.

]Technical analysis: the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open down, and for a month and a half, all fractals (both bullish and bearish) are located below the red line – this is a signal for sales.



Trading recommendations: the priority is to continue the bearish trend, despite the bullish correction. Markets tend to go to the limit, and traders tend to look for the "bottom" where it is not. Short positions below 1.16000, cancel this scenario and move to long positions above 1.17500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

05 Jun 2018 9:57 AM

Review EUR/JPY 05.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: currently, EURJPY is in a short-term bullish trend, against the background of a noticeable strengthening of the Euro in the last few weeks. From the important news on the EU today – the ECB President Draghi's Speech.

Technical analysis: for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium - term trend is bullish, and it has not yet turned around. The long-term trend is also bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, fractals are above the red line - this is also a signal to buy.



Trading recommendations: we follow the bullish trend - the coincidence of short-term, medium-term and long-term trends is a rare and strong trading signal. Long positions above 128.729, cancellation of this scenario and short positions below 127.500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

05 Jun 2018 10:32 AM

A comprehensive analysis of the EUR/USD with 04.06.2018 for 08.06.2018

In this comprehensive review, we will look at the main fundamental and technical factors that will affect the movement of EURUSD.

During the previous trading week, from May 28 to June 1, the Euro traded in different directions:



In early June, several important government decisions are expected, within the framework of the "trade war" between the US and China, which has been lasting for more than the first month. It is possible to predict a significant volatility, and therefore the opportunity to make a good profit.

Technical analysis

The long-term trend of EURUSD is bearish, since 2008.

The medium-term bullish trend (the entire 2017 currency pair was going up) seems to be slowly turning to bearish:



Option № 1 - continuation of the bullish trend

The short-term EURUSD trend is bullish, the price has broken through several daily highs in a row. Perhaps the trend will continue in favor of this option says fall "Alligator" on the H4 chart open up. The most powerful bearish trend, for the last two months in a row (when the price fell from 1.25000 to 1.15000) forever lasts can not, and seems to be replaced by a bullish correction.



Option № 2 - turn to bearish trend
In favor of this option, we note that the trend is still bearish on the higher time frames (weekly and above). In April and may, prices went down at a very sharp angle, almost steeply, this indicates the strength of the trend. A powerful price movement rarely turns so fast (in a week), as a rule, it takes more time.

Option № 3 – flat

This option is not excluded, we must be ready for it too. If there are no significant (confirming each other) trading signals to buy (sell) –we remain outside the market, waiting for a favorable moment. Unnecessary movements are much more dangerous for your trading account than the lack of open positions.


Fundamental analysis
The key events of the economic calendar this week include the following:


Tuesday 5 June

-ECB President Draghi's Speech

-JOLTS Job Openings (USA)

-ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USA)

Wednesday 6 June

-Trade Balance (USA)

Thursday 7 June

-Gross Domestic Product  (European Union)

-Initial Jobless Claims (USA)

Before the news-be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. We try to "keep abreast" of the market, follow our daily reviews.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

06 Jun 2018 9:55 AM

Review USD/CAD 06.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the Canadian dollar has been in a short-term bullish trend since April 18. The medium-term trend, which began in September 2017, is also bullish. Today, from the important news on Canada – Building Permits, as well as the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index. In addition, a significant factor is the us deployed "trade wars", which affected Canada. News about mutual duties and comments of politicians affect volatility.

Technical analysis: note that on the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, and most fractals above the red line – so we are not talking about a reliable reversal of the bullish trend. Most traders make mistakes on small time charts, when "the forest is not visible behind the trees", and the usual correction can be taken as a trend reversal. Not deceive.



Trading recommendations: the priority is to continue the bullish trend, long positions - when the price moves above 1.30662, short positions - below two-day low at 1.29000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

07 Jun 2018 8:56 AM

Review NZD/USD 07.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: the short-term trend of the New Zealand dollar is now bullish, it seems that the medium-term bearish trend that began in April is slowly turning around. Of the important economic news in the US today - the Initial Jobless Claims.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish since 2009, perhaps, now we are seeing one of the best trading opportunities – when the short-term and medium-term trends return to the trend of the long-term. Just this week – about a dozen taps and false breakouts resistance level 0.70500. Usually after such a long "probing" level there are powerful price movements.



Trading recommendations: priority to long positions, follow the bullish trend. Cancel this scenario and move to short positions – with a reliable breakout of the two-day low 0.69968.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

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