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Forums > Commercial Zone > Third Party Market Analytics > Amega - Daily Technical Analysis
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08 Jun 2018 10:10 AM

Review USD/JPY 08.06.2018


Fundamental analysis
: after a false breakout of the resistance level of 110.000 Japanese yen went down. Medium-term trend, the third month (since March) - bullish. Today's economic news on Japan - the Current Account n.s.a. - pushed the price down a little.


Technical analysis
: long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded.  Starting from November 2017, the yen is in a medium-term bearish trend. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth closed at the end of May, and remains in this state until now. A reasonable solution would be to wait for the situation to develop, to recognize a reliable price movement - and follow it.


Trading recommendations:
while we follow a bullish trend, a long position in a valid breakout of the level of 110.000. When moving down below the two - day low by 109.000 - short positions.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

11 Jun 2018 7:08 AM

Review GOLD/USD 11.06.2018


Fundamental analysis:
over the past five days we have seen five false breakouts of the intermediate resistance level at 1300.000 – this is called the "resistance zone", and in such cases there is often a breakthrough in the opposite direction (in our case – below 1290.000). You should be prepared for this scenario. There are no important economic news on the US today.


Technical analysis:
the long-term bearish trend, which began in September 2011, is likely to slowly turn to a bullish one since the end of 2015. On the W1 chart, the Alligator's mouth, previously open up, is now looking down. Although the nervous political environment of recent times (in particular, the "summit of discord" of the G7 countries and the ongoing "trade wars") can make adjustments to this technical vision of the situation.


Trading recommendations:
the situation is not obvious, so without reliable trading signals it is better to refrain from entering the market. Short positions - below 1293.283, long positions - above the two-day high at 1303.076.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

11 Jun 2018 9:22 AM

A comprehensive analysis of the USDCHF with 11.06.2018 for 15.06.2018

In our comprehensive weekly review, we will consider the main fundamental and technical factors that will affect the USDCHF currency pair, as well as possible options for the development of the market situation.

Last week, from 4 to 8 June, the Swiss franc was trading in different directions, in a narrow price range 0.98000-0.99000:



Held in Switzerland on June 10, the referendum rejected the initiative "Live money" (75.7% of the vote against 24.3%), however, a significant impact on the market price this event has not had. This week, the FED will announce its decision on the interest rate, which most often causes significant volatility.

Technical analysis

The long-term trend of USDCHF has been bearish for 18 years, since 2000. There are some signs of a possible reversal, since 2011 from 0.70157 the price slowly rises. The medium-term bullish trend from February 2018 May be changing the long-term trend, turning from bearish to bullish. Consider the continuation of the medium-term bullish trend as the most likely forecast.

Option № 1 - continuation of the bullish trend

On the chart D1 there is a bearish correction of the bullish trend, down after a false breakout of an important psychological level 1.00000. In such a situation, it is psychologically more comfortable to play on the rollback, taking 1.05000 for the "top". However, the trend is more likely to continue than turn around, and a reliable reversal of the bullish trend can not be considered yet. Long positions can be considered when the price moves above 0.99000.



Option № 2 - turn to bearish trend

On the H4 chart, the short-term bearish trend that has been lasting since mid-may is clearly seen, the price consistently updates the daily and weekly lows. Time will show whether it is a reliable reversal or just a correction. While the situation is not obvious, the Alligator lines are intertwined. Short positions are possible with a true breakout of 0.98000.



Option № 3 - side price movement

The least likely option, however, if there are no strong buy (sell) trading signals – we remain outside the market, waiting for the right moment.

Fundamental analysis

The most significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

Tuesday 12 June

Wednesday 13 June

  • FOMC Economic Projections
  • Fed's Powell Speech
  • Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • FOMC Press conference

Thursday 14 June

  • Swiss National Bank press conference
  • Retail Sales control group (USA)
  • Retail Sales (USA)
  • Retail Sales ex Autos (USA)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (USA)

Friday 15 June

  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USA)

Before this news, be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely yours, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company

12 Jun 2018 7:51 AM

Review USD/CHF 12.06.2018


Fundamental analysis: the medium-term bullish trend of the Swiss franc seems to be slowly unfolding before our eyes, prices consistently update daily and weekly lows. Today, the consumer price index excluding food and energy products is one of the most important news in the US.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Let's pay attention to the D1 chart – the Alligator's mouth opened down again after the lines intertwined. In addition, most fractals are below the red line – a signal for sales.

Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bear trend. Short positions - below 0.98000, long positions - when securing the price above 0.99000.


Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

Edited:12 Jun 2018 8:05 AM
13 Jun 2018 7:00 AM

Review AUD/USD 13.06.2018


Fundamental analysis:
it seems that the short-term bullish trend that has been lasting for the last few weeks is slowly returning to the medium-term bearish trend. The main economic news today is the decision of the FED interest rate, this event is often accompanied by abnormal volatility, and need to be ready for it. Today's speech by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe did not have a significant impact on the price.


Technical analysis:
the long-term trend since 2011 is also bearish, so we are dealing with a fairly rare and strong trading signal – the coincidence of three trends. On the H1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is revealed downwards, in addition, fractals (both bullish and bearish) are below the red line – a signal for sales.



Trading recommendations: follow the bear trend. Short positions below 0.75500, cancel this script and switching to long positions - with the breakdown of the two-day high at 0.76232.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

14 Jun 2018 9:22 AM

Review USD/JPY 14.06.2018

Fundamental analysis: after a false breakout of the resistance level of 110.500, the Japanese yen slightly went down. Medium – term trend, the third month (since March) - bullish. Today's economic news in the US are retail sales and the "Retail control group".


Technical analysis:
long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded.  Since November 2017, the yen has been in a medium-term bearish trend. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is closed, fractals are both above and below the red line – the situation is uncertain. We need to wait for the situation to develop, to recognize a reliable price movement - and then follow it.


Trading recommendations:
while we follow the bullish trend, which has not yet turned around reliably.  Long positions above the level 110.843. If you go down, below $ 109.500 - short positions.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

15 Jun 2018 6:43 AM

Review EUR/JPY 15.06.2018


Fundamental analysis
: yesterday's collapse of the Euro by more than 200 points while continuing, prices are now at monthly lows, and it seems that this is not the limit. The data on consumer price indices are the most important news on the European Union today.


Technical analysis
: for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium - term trend is bullish, and it has not yet turned around. The long-term trend is also bullish since 2012. On the H1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, fractals are below the red line - this is a signal for sales. Let's pay attention to the angle of bearish trend – it's a sharp angle, almost vertical, which indicates the strength of the trend.



Trading recommendations: the trend will continue rather than unfold, because we follow the bearish trend. Short positions - below 127.694, cancellation of this scenario and long positions - above 130.338.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

18 Jun 2018 9:18 AM

Review EURUSD 18.06.2018


Fundamental analysis
: last week was bearish for the Euro, the dollar is more than noticeable (300 points almost one day on June 14) strengthened. Important economic news for the USA are expected today evening speeches from several FED officials.


Technical analysis
: the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. On the H1 chart, the Alligator's fall, after last Thursday's collapse, is still revealed down. Prices are close to the support levels 1.15000 – 155000, that is, to the May lows. Note that at the moment, technical factors are secondary - market volatility is caused primarily by fundamental factors, namely, "trade wars" between the leading economies of the world: the US, China and the EU.


Trading recommendations
: the priority is to continue the bearish trend. Short positions below 1.15500, canceling this scenario and moving to long positions above 1.17000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

19 Jun 2018 7:28 AM

A comprehensive analysis of GBP/USD for 18.04.2018 22.04.2018

In our traditional comprehensive weekly review we will review the main fundamental and technical factors, as well as give trading recommendations for GBPUSD. This currency pair is extremely volatile and unpredictable, however, we get a large profit on the powerful price movements.

The previous week, from 11 to 15 June, was bearish for GBPUSD:

The week was full of news and political events, which affected the volatility. In particular, the us declared duties in the "trade war" with China - more than significantly strengthened the dollar. We believe that the response from China will not be long in coming, which means that we need to be ready for abnormal volatility.


Technical analysis

The long-term trend of GBPUSD has been bearish for 11 years, since January 2007. There are some signs of a possible reversal: since October 2016 and the whole of 2017, the price basically went up. This trend continued at the beginning of this year 2018, but the last two months (medium-term trend) for the pound were bearish. Therefore, we consider the bearish forecast as the most likely.


Option № 1 - continuation of the bearish trend

Pay attention to the chart D1-highlighted the classic trend reversal figure "Head and shoulders".



The mouth of the "Alligator" is open down, most fractals (both bullish and bearish) are below the red line – this is a signal to sell. A reasonable solution would be short positions below the fresh low at 1.32109.


Option № 2 - bullish trend

As we have already noted, the main role is played by fundamental factors-political news within the "trade wars" between the leading world powers. You need to be prepared for a sharp price movement up. On the weekly chart, the "Alligator" bullish trend, which began in 2017, did not turn around reliably - we will not ignore it. This scenario and the corresponding long positions are considered when fixing the price above 1.333500.



Option № 3 - flat

The least likely option, however, if we do not see the trade signals for buying (selling) confirming each other, it will be more reasonable to stay out of the market, waiting for the appropriate time.


Fundamental analysis

Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

Monday 18 June

  • FOMC Members Duke, Bostic and Williams speech

Tuesday 19 June

  • Building Permits Change (USA)
  • Building Permits (USA)

Wednesday 20 June

  • Fed's Powell Speech
  • Existing Home Sales (USA)

Thursday 21 June

Before the news - be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely yours, Sergey Ryazantsev - Financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company

19 Jun 2018 9:54 AM

Review USD/CAD 19.06.2018


Fundamental analysis
: the short-term bullish trend, which received a powerful impetus during the avalanche strengthening of the dollar on Thursday, June 14, continues its development. The medium-term trend, which began in September 2017, is also bullish. From the news on the US today - Building Permits Change and Building Permits.


Technical analysis
: on the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, all fractals above the red line are a buy signal. While such price spikes have inexperienced traders it is often tempting to play on a pullback down. In fact, such a breakthrough indicates the readiness of the price to move in this direction - up. In your imagination, no one doubts, but-do not try to see the "top" where it is not.


Trading recommendations
: we follow the bullish trend, long positions when the price moves above 1.32500, short positions below 1.29500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

20 Jun 2018 9:10 AM

Review EUR/JPY 20.06.2018


Fundamental analysis
: the weakening of the Euro against the backdrop of the strengthening of the dollar continues, the price of EURJPY is now at monthly lows, and it seems that this is not the limit. Among the important news on the EU today is the speech of the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi.


Technical analysis
: for almost two years, since June 2016, the medium-term trend is bullish, it has not yet turned around. The long-term trend is also bullish since 2012. On the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, fractals are below the red line - a signal for sales.


Trading recommendations
: the trend will continue rather than unfold, so we follow the bearish trend. Short positions - when the price moves below 126.636, cancellation of this scenario and long positions – when the price is fixed above the level of 128.500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

21 Jun 2018 8:52 AM

Review USDCHF 21.06.2018


Fundamental analysis
: the Swiss franc is slowly getting to the psychologically important mark of 1.00000, it is possible to predict significant volatility, and as a result – the opportunity to make good money. As a rule, near the levels with "round figures" price movements are the most powerful – level breakout or rebound, according to the situation. Today, from the important news in the US - the initial applications for unemployment benefits. Today's press conference of the National Bank of Switzerland and the decision of the National Bank of Switzerland on the interest rate had no significant impact on the price.


Technical analysis
: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Let's pay attention to the D1 chart –the Alligator's mouth is open up, and the price seems (but is not) too high, intuitively I want to play on a roll - down. And this may be a trap, because the trend (and the medium – term trend-bullish) is likely to continue than unfold.


Trading recommendations
: follow the bullish trend. Long positions above 1.00000, short positions when the price pulls back below the level of 0.99000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company [url=https://amegafx.com/en/home]AMEGA[/url]

Source: [url=https://amegafx.com/en/analytics/analysis/all/253/review-usd-chf]Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA[/url]

22 Jun 2018 7:56 AM

Review GBP/JPY 22.06.2018


Fundamental analysis
: for the fifth month (since February), the currency pair GBPJPY is in a medium – term bearish trend-you need to be ready for a reversal. Of the main fundamental factors on the price is now affected by the procedure Brexit. Important economic news on England and Japan is not expected today.


Technical analysis
: the long-term bearish trend that began in summer 2007 has not yet turned around, although it is close to it. Let's pay attention to the D1 chart - the Alligator's fall is revealed downwards, although the short-term trend is bullish-the situation is uncertain.



Trading recommendations: a reasonable solution is to wait for the development of the current market situation. Long positions - after the true breakout of the resistance level at 146.500. Cancellation of this option and, accordingly, short positions - with the breakdown of the level 144.500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

25 Jun 2018 8:11 AM

Review EUR/USD 25.06.2018


Fundamental analysis
: last week, there was no pronounced trend on EURUSD, the currency pair was trading in the narrow price range 1.15500 - 1.16500, with numerous false breakouts in both directions. This happens before powerful price movements. Of the important economic news in the US today - the sale of new homes.


Technical analysis
: the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. On the H4 chart, the Alligator's mouth is open up, but the price is not supported by volumes, and we can expect the medium-term bearish trend to continue. Note also that at the moment technical factors are secondary-market volatility is caused primarily by fundamental factors, namely, "trade wars" between the leading economies of the world: the US, China and the European Union. Follow the news.


Trading recommendations
: we need to give the situation time to develop and prove itself. Short positions below 1.16000, cancel this scenario and move to long positions above 1.17000.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company [url=https://amegafx.com/en/home]AMEGA[/url]

Source: [url=https://amegafx.com/en/analytics/analysis/all/256/review-eur-usd]Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA[/url]

26 Jun 2018 6:51 AM

Review NZD/USD 26.06.2018


Fundamental analysis
: the New Zealand dollar is now in a short-term bearish trend, going down powerfully - prices are now at annual lows. Against the background of "trade wars" the dollar has recently strengthened significantly, however, news from the European Union or China can change this trend. From the important economic news on the United States today – a speech by representatives of the FED Bostic and Kaplan.


Technical analysis
: long-term bullish trend since 2009. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is revealed downwards, in addition, fractals are below the red line – this is a signal for sales. After the recent false breakout of the support level of 0.68500, we can expect further price movement to this level.


Trading recommendations
: priority short positions, follow the short-term bearish trend. Sales - below 0.68500, cancel this script and switching to long positions is at a reliable level breakdown 0.69500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company [url=https://amegafx.com/en/home]AMEGA[/url]

Source: [url=https://amegafx.com/en/analytics/analysis/all/258/review-nzd-usd]Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA[/url]

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