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Forums > Commercial Zone > Third Party Market Analytics > Amega - Daily Technical Analysis
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26 Jun 2018 10:04 AM

A comprehensive analysis on USDCAD with 25.06.2018 29.06.2018

In our traditional comprehensive weekly review we will discuss the main fundamental and technical factors affecting the Canadian dollar exchange rate, as well as give trading recommendations.

The previous week, from 18 to 22 June, USDCAD was bullish. After the true breakout of the resistance level at 1.30000, the market quotes are going up powerfully:

In the "trade war" between the major economies of the world were involved and Canada. As we believe, the us dollar is stronger in this confrontation than the canadian dollar. We also note that the lines of the Alligator are intertwined on the H1 chart, which means that you need to be ready for a sudden turn.


Technical analysis

The long-term trend of USDCAD is bullish for 11 years, starting from November 2007. Although 2016 and 2017 (medium-term trend) were bearish. The short-term trend, as we have already noted – also bullish – so consider this forecast as the most likely. The coincidence of long-term and short-term trends is a strong trading signal.


Option № 1 - bullish trend

On the H4 chart, the open fall of the Alligator is seen, i.e. the lower time frame (H1) is supported by the higher (H4). Most of the fractal is above the red line:

Long position – when a valid breakout of the level of 1.33500.


Option № 2 - bearish trend

We do not forget that the medium-term trend is still bearish, the last two years USDCAD is going down. So, you need to be ready for a sharp change of trend. On the D1 chart, the price is not supported by volumes – we will not ignore this.

This scenario is considered when fixing the price below 1.32500.


Option № 3 - side price movement

We do not exclude this option, if the trade signals confirming each other for buying (selling) will not be – it is more reasonable to remain outside the market.


Fundamental analysis

Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

Monday, June 25

  • New Home Sales (USA)

Tuesday, June 26

  • FOMC Members Bostic and Kaplan speech

Wednesday, June 27

  • Goods Trade Balance (USA)
  • Durable Goods Orders (USA)
  • Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (USA)
  • BoC Governor Poloz Speech

Thursday, June 28

  • Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
  • Gross Domestic Product Annualized (USA)
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (USA)
  • FOMC Member Bostic speech

Friday, June 29

  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (USA)
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USA)

Before the news-be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

Sincerely yours, Sergey Ryazantsev – Financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company

27 Jun 2018 9:05 AM

Review USD/CAD 27.06.2018


Fundamental analysis
: the short-term bullish trend, which received a powerful impetus during the avalanche strengthening of the dollar on Thursday, June 14, continues its development. The medium-term trend, which began in September 2017, is also bullish. Today, from the important news on Canada - BoC Governor Poloz Speech.


Technical analysis
: on the D1 chart, the  Alligator's mouth is open up, all fractals above the red line are a buy signal. Already two week the price is near the resistance level 1.33500 (single - false break). So often before a powerful breakthrough in the opposite direction, in our case – down. Be prepared for this.


Trading recommendations
: we follow the bullish trend, long positions when the price moves above 1.333500, short positions below 1.32500.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

03 Jul 2018 9:35 AM

Review AUD/USD 03.07.2018


Fundamental analysis:
medium-term (from January 2018) and the trend for the Australian dollar is bearish. Prices are now at annual lows. Today's news - the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the interest rate (rate left unchanged) and the accompanying statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia - significantly pushed the price up.


Technical analysis:
the long-term trend since 2011 is bearish. On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth is revealed downwards, in addition, fractals (both bullish and bearish) are below the red line – a signal for sales.


Trading recommendations:
the probability of a short-term bullish trend reversal is high. Short positions below 0.73033, cancel this script and switching to long positions in the breakdown and fixing prices above the level 0.74080.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

04 Jul 2018 8:12 AM

Review USD/CHF 04.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: the Swiss franc traded close to the psychologically important level of 1.00000. "Trade wars", as the most significant factor for the volatility of the us dollar, have been a little quiet lately, as a result, the volatility is also decreasing. Important economic news on the US and Switzerland is not expected today.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend has been bearish for 18 years (since 2000). Let's pay attention to the D1 chart – the Alligator lines have been intertwined for the third week in a row, there is no pronounced trend. Also note that the chart begins to emerge classic trend reversal figure "Head and shoulders". Many traders will want to play down – and this may turn out to be a trap.

Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bear trend. Short positions below 0.98921. Long positions is at a reliable level breakdown 0.99655.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

05 Jul 2018 8:26 AM

Review USDJPY 05.07.2018


Fundamental analysis:
the medium-term trend of the Japanese yen for the fourth month (since March) – bullish. Price significantly broke through the psychologically important level of 110.000 and was immediately rushed to 111.000. Today's important news on the US - the ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and FOMC Minutes.


Technical analysis:
long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded.  On the D1 chart, the Alligator's mouth opens up and then closes again-the situation is uncertain. Note that for the third week in a row, the price drifts (with many false breakouts in both directions) near the important resistance level of 110.500 - so often before the upcoming powerful price movement. You have to be prepared for this.


Trading recommendations:
while we follow the short-term bullish trend, long positions are above 111.160. Cancel this scenario and respectively short positions below 110.228.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

06 Jul 2018 9:44 AM

Review of ETH cryptocurrency on 06.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: since January 2018, the air is in a pronounced bearish trend. As we believe, the time of the crypto currency boom has largely passed, it is not worth waiting for fabulous profits (especially not professional market participants). But to play on the decline, it may be a good trading idea.


Technical analysis:
during the current week, the price was in a narrow price range from 483.72 to 448.01. The trend will continue rather than unfold, so it is reasonable to expect a continuation of the bearish trend, provided a reliable breakdown of the level 440.05.


Trading recommendations:
follow the bear trend. Short positions - below 448.00, cancellation of this option and, accordingly, long positions - above 485.00.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

10 Jul 2018 9:50 AM

Review GBP/USD 10.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: now GBP/USD is in a short-term bullish trend. Yesterday's news about the resignation of the minister for the UK's exit from the EU David Davis significantly moved the quotes down - by 1 700 ticks. From the important news for the UK today – Gross Domestic Product. In the United States - JOLTS Job Openings.


Technical analysis:
the long-term bearish trend has been lasting since 2008. The short-term trend has changed from bearish to bullish. Pay attention to the H1 chart: the Alligator's mouth is open downwards, but the lines start to intertwine; most fractals are below the red line; bullish candles break through all three lines – the signals are contradictory, the situation is not certain.


Trading recommendations:
we follow the medium-term bearish trend, it has not turned around yet. Short positions - below 1.31872. Cancel this option and a long position above the level 1.33620.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

12 Jul 2018 8:54 AM

Review EUR/JPY 12.07.2018

Fundamental analysis: now we are seeing a pronounced short-term bullish trend. From important news on the EU today we expect information about the ECB meeting on monetary policy.

Technical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish since 2012. On the H1 chart, pay attention to an important psychological point - the price rests on the upper edge of the screen, it seems (but is not) too high. A powerful breakthrough says not about the imminent turn, but about the readiness of the price to move in this direction.

Trading recommendations: we follow the short-term bullish trend, the long positions are above 131.383. Cancel this scenario and respectively short positions below the level 129.890.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

13 Jul 2018 9:32 AM

Review of LTC cryptocurrency on 13.07.2018


Fundamental analysis:
most of cryptocurrency is now in a downtrend and LTC is no exception. Since January 2018, the trend is bearish, the price goes down powerfully from the top to 370.59, falling more than five times – to 70.99. We believe that the cryptocurrency "boom" has passed its peak, investors are accustomed to a new commodity exchange, have become more sophisticated. But in this situation, to play on the decline may be a good trading idea.


Technical analysis:
the trend will continue rather than unfold, so it is reasonable to expect a continuation of the bearish trend, provided a reliable breakdown of the resistance level 72.89.


Trading recommendations:
follow the bear trend. Short positions below 72.89. Cancellation of this option and, accordingly, long positions - above 79.82. Do not forget, with such a volatile financial instrument, risk management comes to the first place. Protect your positions, do not let the losses be more profit.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

16 Jul 2018 7:01 AM

Review EURUSD 16.07.2018


Fundamental analysis:
last week was bearish for the Euro, the dollar has consistently strengthened its position. In General, prices are now at annual lows. Today's important news is the meeting of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Helsinki, as well as a package of news on the US – information on retail sales.


Technical analysis:
the long - term trend is bearish since 2008. Pay attention to the H4 chart: the Alligator lines are intertwined, so it often happens when the trend changes. Prices rebounded from resistance at 1.16118 and went up.


Trading recommendations:
we need to give the situation time to develop and prove itself. Short positions can be viewed below 1.16118. Cancel this scenario and transition to a long position above the 1.17587.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

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