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10/24/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
Hi everyone. Making the best use possible of our brand new forum, from next week we will be publishing our weekly outlook for the most popular FX pair, the EURUSD. We will analyse the key events for the week that can affect the cross, its price action and possible entry levels.



Legal disclaimer: The content of this topic is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on this forum constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Clear Markets to buy or sell any securities, or other financial instruments.
10/24/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
EUR USD Weekly Analysis Oct. 25th to Oct. 29th

On our EUR USD forecast for the period October 25th to October 29th, we start with an overlook of the main trend. On the weekly chart, we can observe that the pair corrected for the second straight week from its previous low at 1.1524, after a long decline that led to this years’ lowest value.

Strong support is expected around the 1.16 area, as this key level established the last support line before propelling the pair to last year’s peak, ending in the 1.23 area. At the time of writing, the pair closed above the previous two weeks’ highs, confirming the retracement started last week, also confirmed by the RSI leaving the oversold area. The major downtrend, started at the beginning of the year, however, remains intact for the time being. Price action seems to be leading towards the 1.1708 value, where the 100 MA converges with the current downtrend’s resistance.

The daily chart shows most price action and all close prices above the breakout close price of 1.15960 that occurred on October 13th, when an engulfing pattern started the current upwards retracement. Most tops, however, were consistently sold, signalling there is not yet enough conviction among traders to keep pushing the price up, as bears use these prices to sell the pair, signalling the sentiment remains bearish.

On the 4 hours chart, we observe most price action consolidating inside a box between 1.1618 and 1.1660. Last week’s resistance has become this week’s support, signalling the bullish retracement is gaining momentum, although it has been so far unable to reach considerable new highs, being consistently sold in the 1.1652 to 1.1667 area, as clearly observed in the daily chart as well.

EUR USD Forecast Oct. 25th to Oct. 29th

We expect the EUR/USD to continue next week its laborious way up towards the 1.17 to 1.1710 area, potentially entering into a new consolidation phase on higher values if a daily close above the current resistance area of 1.1665 is finally achieved. There is not much room for price improvement, however, as the pair will face strong resistance in the 1.17 to 1.1710 area and will most likely not be able to break this point up unless strong economic data or news developments encourage the buying of the common currency.

Important ECB releases are expected next week, including its interest rate decision on Thursday and the Eurozone’s GDP on Friday. Both news events have the potential to move the price strongly in either direction, but the market expects no surprises from these announcements. It is likely to observe strong volatility during these announcements, so plan your positions carefully and use adequate money management measures.

EUR USD Suggested Strategy (2:1 risk-reward ratio) for Oct. 25th to Oct. 29th

Buy Limit at 1.1613 with Stop Loss at 1.1571 and Take Profit at 1.1697.



Legal disclaimer: The content of this topic is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on this forum constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Clear Markets to buy or sell any securities, or other financial instruments.
10/26/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
Following the trade idea of our EURUSD forecast for this week, with a buy limit @ 1.1613, we got filled yesterday after the release of the EUR IFO numbers, with the Business Climate and Expectations figures worst than the previous release and analysts forecasts. Here's the trade we are taking:
10/28/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
Hi everyone! The moment we have all been waiting is fast approaching.

After a couple of sessions with the EURUSD going nowhere, today we should, finally, have some clarity of where the pair is heading.
With a disappointing start of the week, with the German IFO numbers, causing the EURUSD to tumble, the pair recovered slightly and is in a range.
With no changes on the ECB rate, as expected, the market is now waiting for Lagarde's press conference.

Good luck everyone, and trade safely smile
11/1/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
The previous week

As we expected, EUR/USD moved up towards the 1.17 area, reaching a week high of 1.1692, after consolidating the previous week’s prices and where it found strong resistance and sharply fell on Friday afternoon, confirming once again the major downtrend.

The strong move across the board towards the American currency is attributed to a combination of factors, including increasing rates on US treasury bonds, large speculators positioning based on the monthly chart, and expectation for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday.

What to expect this week

There is strong support around the 1.1535 to 1.15 area, but a close below these prices would likely indicate further movement on the downside. Failure to close below this point after repeated attempts would indicate a revisit to the daily resistance already established and clearly shown in the chart below:
11/1/2021
Topic:
GBP USD forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
Hi everyone. Sometimes it's impossible to trade our favourite pair, the EURUSD. So, we've decided to add our GBPUSD forecast and market analysis for those who prefer to trade the cable, or for when there's no clear trading direction with the EURO. We will be publishing our weekly outlook for the GBPUSD, analysing the key events for the week ahead, its price action and possible entry levels.


Legal disclaimer: The content of this topic is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on this forum constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Clear Markets to buy or sell any securities, or other financial instruments.
11/1/2021
Topic:
GBP USD forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
GBPUSD Forecast Nov. 1st to Nov. 5th

If you followed our EURUSD analysis on the other thread, we have decided to leave EURUSD aside for the time being until price action shows how the current trend evolves and will focus on the GBPUSD this week, with a solid technical signal down, shown on Friday afternoon as depicted in the chart at the bottom.

The daily chart on Cable shows a clear downtrend with numerous support and resistance levels already established. The sharp USD movement on Friday afternoon led the pair to close below its 21 EMA, indicating further movement to the downside.

The eventual leg down could get corrected around the 1.358 area, near the previous consolidation support on the upwards leg and the second support on the main trend. The logical stop loss would be located at the 1.3840 area, where the pair has shown resistance and consolidation for several days.

The pair should eventually revisit the third support point at around 1.3420; however, consolidation in the area between this point and 1.3570 without clearly reaching the previous low could lead to a reversal. Revisiting the previous low will likely take more than 1 week; we will monitor how this trade develops and share our findings with you.

Always remember to trade with low leverage and use proper risk management strategies.
11/5/2021
Topic:
Why is Shiba inu price down?

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
Hi there. This price correction of the SHIB/USD was pre-announced. Just remember that no market can climb in a straight line forever (or drop in a straight line). The pair went up on October 24th, breaking the resistance level of 0.000036 (now a support level) like an arrow, and for the following 3 days went up, making an ATH at 0.000088.

Of course, the correction was imminent. If we look at the extremely overbought market and divergence in the price before the correction, we can see that profit-taking was about to happen.

Now, it's normal for cryptos to make huge drops (and bounces) due to their volatile nature, and a correction to about 50% (and even 61.8% is normal) which is the area between 0.000056 and 0.000043, can be considered normal for a crypto market.

So, to answer your question directly "Why is SHIBUSD price down?", it is down because the market is correcting. Let's see now if it bounces back up and sustains enough momentum for another push to the resistance level between 0.000088 and 0.000073. Good luck smile
11/8/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
Hi traders, and we are back with everyone's favorite pair this week.

The EURUSD maintains its daily downtrend intact but keeps bouncing back from the 1.1520 level, where all supports converge. Without clear signals in either direction, we expect the pair to continue trading inside its channel, consolidating a downside triangle where there is still some space for one more bounce against the daily downtrend resistance.

We expect most price action to occur inside the orange square shown in the Daily chart below; however, the pair will eventually have to break in either direction, giving us further clues on how the major trend will continue to develop. Major economic news from either the US or the Eurozone will most likely be needed to trigger a breakthrough in either direction; until that time, the space for speculation and price action keeps narrowing.

Based on the current daily and weekly trends, any level between 1.16 and 1.162 would be a decent entry point for a short position, although we don’t expect it to go a lot further below the 1.1540 level.

A close above the previous resistance point at 1.167, however, would be indicative of closing any short positions on the pair, as it would mean the end of the current daily downtrend and a possible rebound on the weekly chart that could, with enough time, send prices back to retest the 1.1880 area that worked as resistance at the beginning of September.

Such breakthroughs would probably see a correction around the 1.1770 area. This is better observed in the Weekly chart below.
11/15/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
EUR USD Weekly Analysis Nov. 15th to Nov. 19th

As we expected, the EURUSD bounced up to revisit the daily resistance line, failed to make a breakthrough and resumed its way downwards to close the week on a strong bear note, breaking old weekly support levels, while almost reaching the daily support level. On the H4 chart, we can see that the RSI is in the oversold area but has not yet shown a buy signal, and the price action has almost reached the daily resistance, but there is still some room for further down action.

EUR USD Forecast Nov. 15th to Nov. 19th

We expect a Doji candle on the weekly chart, probably moving up to around 1.1510 to 1.1520, retesting this key weekly level that has acted as support and now may become resistance. The beginning of the week could show a rather strong buy activity, as a result of the current oversold situation, but lacking news to move the price further up, traders would probably see this level as a sold opportunity, and the pair should close the week at some point around the 1.1480 area.

As mentioned before, there is still some room for further down movement before the pair retraces its steps, so the next weekly candle could have a downside component that could try to reach the 1.14 area. If so, such levels would likely be visited at the beginning of the week and could potentially be an interesting entry point for a modest long position, hoping to catch some of the eventual retracement on the main downtrend that is currently developing on the daily chart.

Trade safely, and many green pips smile
11/22/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
EUR USD Weekly Analysis Nov. 22nd to Nov. 26th

The EURUSD pair kept dropping, even further than expected, to reach the 1.13 level, and briefly even lower. The pair found strong resistance around this area, twice during the week, but strong pressure remains on the common currency, as Fed talks of upcoming rate hikes lead traders into the greenback.

The two shadows in the 4H chart lead to conclude that position traders consider any price below 1.13 to be strongly oversold and therefore a buying opportunity; however, it is not that simple for the Euro, as pressure continued throughout the week. The dragonfly from Wednesday followed by a strong bull candle on Thursday was a clear buy signal, but it was followed by serious selling at the end of the week, finally retracing a bit in the afternoon but again failing to move the price upwards, as it’s seen on the 4H shadow on Friday’s afternoon.

Such behaviour is rather uncommon, and is usually associated with surprises; Friday’s movement was probably caused by Lagarde’s comments on rate hikes “unlikely on 2022”. Even so, the Euro recovered some territory, leading to believe most market participants consider the pair to be already oversold.

EUR USD Forecast Nov. 22nd to Nov. 26th

So, what to expect? The pair is already oversold, and today’s news is most likely already priced in, so most likely some recovery is on the horizon. Uncertainty seems to remain among most participants, as seen at Friday’s afternoon when shadows on both directions were formed, indicating buyers want to keep buying and sellers still want to sell some more.

The balance is inclined in favour of the common currency, where bullish Euro news or no news at all should see some recovery, whereas only more USD bullish news would move the price further down, probably with lots of resistance as new buyers jump into the action and early sellers start to take profit. Still, the leg is not over until is over, and new buying signals are required to buy an eventual retracement. These signals were lacking during last week, we hope to see them early on the week ahead.
11/29/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
EUR USD Weekly Analysis Nov. 29th to Dec. 3rd

After a long a strong move that saw the greenback strengthen across the board and pushed the exchange rate of the common currency to prices of 1.12 and slightly below; the Euro has finally made a strong come back all along Friday, forming a textbook bullish engulfing pattern on increasing volume (as seen in the 1D chart) that retraced the entire week’s losses, to finally close forming a weekly hammer (see the 1W chart).

Technically, this is a clear and strong bull signal; however… the main reason for this USD retracement across the board is the growing concern on the new Covid-19 variant, originated in South Africa and called “omicron” by the international medical community. This news is quite recent and is currently developing, constant observation will be needed throughout the weekend and the following days, as new developments on this subject could severely influence trading activity during next week.

EUR USD Forecast Nov. 29th to Dec. 3rd

The previous daily channel and the weekly support level are still far from sight, so there is plenty of room for a push-up. If the current trend continues after the recent reversal, EUR/USD could revisit the 1.15 level, where the previous weekly support could act as resistance. Further price activity will have to be observed from there on to determine a potential weekly reversal.

Although this reversal is quite likely to occur, next week’s movements will be closely tied to any news developments on the Covid-19 omicron variant. Such news can occur at any time of the day, so trade wisely, stay safe and review your positions often.
12/6/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
EUR USD Weekly Analysis Dec. 6th to Dec. 10th

We had a rather disappointing week with price activity fluctuating in ranges as different news came along. On Tuesday, Chairman Powell’s comments on the possibility of some tapering occurring sooner than expected sent the USD rocketing up across the board, obliterating the gains achieved by a stronger than expected CPI on the Euro Zone. Surprisingly enough, the markets quickly recovered from this event and EURUSD closed that day with gains, probably due to the USD already being well overbought, even before the news release.

Mixed news from both fronts continued to pile up throughout the week, ending with a disappointing NFP that came in short 340K from consensus. With most news, such a reading would be interpreted as a strong bear signal for the USD, but this report, in particular, can be tricky, as some market participants interpret this specific report as a reading of the overall international business conditions and therefore, can affect several currencies in different ways.

On top of all this, concerns about the new Omicron variant still linger in the air, but somehow faded after news regarding Covid-19 have failed to trigger new worldwide slowdowns throughout 2021, as the world starts to leave the pandemic outbreak in the past. A new Covid strain, immune to existing vaccines, could be a huge game-changer; at this stage, the market considers this possibility as highly unlikely, but everyone still keeps an eye on news developments on Omicron, and so will we.

EUR USD Forecast Dec. 6th to Dec. 10th

So, what to expect this week? Despite the many comes and goes during this last week, the weekly chart shows a Doji with a higher high and a higher low than the previous week. Dojis surely represent uncertainty, but higher highs and higher lows point to a recovery on the common currency. The road ahead looks rocky enough, but we expect EURUSD to continue its laborious way up to a point where a considerable retracement may bring fresh shorts into the market. Any price activity during next week above this week’s close at 1.1383 will likely indicate the retracement is still in place.
12/13/2021
Topic:
EUR USD Forecast

John Lee Rossi
John Lee Rossi
Administrator
Fundamental & Technical Research
EUR USD Weekly Analysis Dec. 13th to Dec. 17th

The EURUSD ends the week without surprises, giving us the 3rd weekly doji in a clear consolidation path that should, eventually, translate into a correction after the strong declines seen during mid-November. Inflation concerns in the USA weigh heavy on the greenback, with numbers not seen in decades, and keep the balance in check while most other news favor a further strengthening on the USD.

EUR USD Forecast Dec. 13th to Dec. 17th

So, what's new this week? All prices below 1.13 keep getting bought, but the market seems to lack enough traction to push prices up. The consolidation phase should be nearly over, but without technical traction, fundamentals could play a key role in future price activity. In this regard, US retail sales next Wednesday would be the anteroom for the heavy weight of economic news: the Fed’s Interest rate decision that can move the markets in unpredictable ways and (maybe) finally give us direction. These events are often loaded with plenty of volatility, trade carefully and use proper risk management strategies.

Keep track of the upcoming events this week with our real-time data Economic Calendar.
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