United States USD

United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Impact:
Medium

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:
USD-20.8
| USD
Actual:
-35.8
Forecast: -15
Previous/Revision:
-16.3
Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: -25
Period: May 2025
What Does It Measure?
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index measures the relative change in manufacturing activity in the Texas region, specifically focusing on production levels, employment trends, and new orders. It assesses key areas such as the general business conditions within the manufacturing sector, with values above zero indicating expansion and below zero indicating contraction.
Frequency
This index is released monthly, typically published on the last business day of each month as a preliminary estimate.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders consider the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index a valuable indicator of economic health, as it provides insights into manufacturing trends that can influence stock market performance and currency valuations such as the USD. Stronger-than-expected results are typically seen as bullish for equities and the dollar, while disappointing readings may depress market sentiment.
What Is It Derived From?
The index is derived from surveys distributed to manufacturing executives in the Texas region, measuring their perceptions of current business conditions and expectations for future activity. A diffusion index is used, wherein positive responses indicate expansion and negative responses suggest contraction, thus providing a nuanced view of economic dynamics.
Description
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is a leading economic indicator reflecting the sentiment of regional manufacturing managers about the business climate. Its preliminary data provides early insights into manufacturing performance before potential revisions in subsequent releases, allowing traders to react to real-time economic signals.
Additional Notes
The index serves as a leading economic measure, with its results often correlating with broader trends in manufacturing across the U.S. Its importance lies in shaping economic forecasts and monitoring regional economic health in relation to national and global manufacturing conditions.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.