United States USD

United States 6-Month Bill Auction

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Actual:
4.105%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
4.09%
Period: May 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:
Period: May 2025
What Does It Measure?
The United States 6-Month Bill Auction measures the demand for government securities sold at auction, specifically focusing on short-term borrowing costs and investor confidence in U.S. economic stability. It assesses the interest rates offered and the total amount of bills auctioned, providing insights into market liquidity, interest rate expectations, and perceived credit risk.
Frequency
The auction for the 6-Month Treasury Bill occurs regularly, typically every four weeks, and the results are released shortly after the auction concludes.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the 6-Month Bill Auction as its outcomes can influence interest rate expectations and overall market sentiment towards U.S. government debt. Strong demand or lower yields can indicate bullish sentiments for equities and the U.S. dollar, while weak results may suggest bearish implications for both.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from competitive bids submitted by a range of investors, including banks, financial institutions, and individual investors. The Treasury Department calculates the auction results based on these bids, which are ranked from lowest to highest yield until the desired amount of debt is sold.
Description
The 6-Month Bill Auction is a crucial economic event reflecting the government's short-term borrowing costs, with both preliminary and final estimates communicated. Preliminary results are released immediately after the auction, based on early bid data, while final results may be revised after additional data collection, leading to potential market reassessment.
Additional Notes
This auction is generally viewed as a coincident economic measure, reflecting current investor sentiment and monetary policy conditions. It often serves as a benchmark for short-term interest rates, providing broader context for similar debt auctions globally and influencing other financial markets.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If demand for the bills is higher than expected, this could indicate bullish conditions for the U.S. dollar and bullish for stocks. Conversely, lower demand could point to bearish sentiments for the U.S. dollar and bearish for stocks as it reflects market caution regarding economic stability.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.